Early 22 GM Thread! (Trade Ideas here)

[CDAV45]

As the GM, I'm analyzing what we need to do to score more runs, and since my target is to win the division, I'm focusing on the White Sox offense.

When I do, I find that the problem is not lack of power. We have hit more home runs and just as many XBHs as Chicago. The difference is almost entirely the ability to get on base.

The difference in team OPS is almost entirely OBP....a 27 point gap. Some of that is due to batting average and some us due to the difference in walks...over 100 less than Chicago.

If our 2022 team OBP is anywhere close to Chicago's, our elite base running will give us the edge.

So my targets aren't power bats as much as they are high OBP guys, even if they are corner OFs. Guys that hit .215 with a .310 OBP aren't at the top of my wish list, even if they bang out 30 HRs.

I'm not going to find a Michael Brantley, but he is the model.

Part of my search was solved by acquiring Straw.

Partially true CATS. While the Indians have hit more HR(11) than the CWS, they still trail in SLG and OPS. When you look into it further and realize that both Jimenez and Robert both missed significant time then reality suggests that we wouldn't be leading them in HR. They also have Vaughn and Sheets. Vaughn has tagged 15 long balls in 388 AB which is around 28 HR over the course of a full season. Sheets has hit 8 in 105 AB. We're talking over 40 HR pace with a full season's worth of AB. They have Abreu(28) and Grandal(19 in 206 AB). The problem isn't the total number of HR, it's that the greatest portion of Cleveland's power comes from 2 players. The love needs to be spread around a little better than that, and my guess is that you probably agree.

Bradley's numbers have him with 30+ HR over a full season's worth of AB, but Bobby's problem isn't HR, it's the overall lack of extra base hits IMO. I'll take .230/.315 from Bobby. That's not the problem with him right now. The problem is his .783 OPS. If you aren't going to draw walks to inflate your OPS then you better be hitting with extra base hit power.

Here's why I like hitters with power in corner positions. You don't need to string together multiple hits/walks together to get on the board. Having said that, I don't want a bunch of .215 hitters with a .310 OBP either, but I'll take a Hunter Renfroe in RF because his bat is productive and he plays solid defense. A hitter like him will consistently give you an above average OPS+ because of his power. When I say power I don't just mean HR. While he's hit 26 HR so far he also has 29 2B too. Where I like power the most is late in the game and against very good pitchers. It's hard to string multiple hits together to score runs against the good ones. I'd be curious to look at a SP like Bieber. He typically doesn't give up much, but what he does give up is probably made up of mistake pitches that get hammered. When you face a lineup that has power all through it, mistakes get exposed more frequently.

I do think you hit the nail on the head when you said that this organization has accumulated some good bat to ball skilled hitters that could develop some power. Rocchio comes to mind and there are many others. I just have a hard time holding out hope that they'll be the next JRam or Lindor. Players like those 2 are so rare and that's what gives me pause.

Like you said, we need probably 2 bats, but I'm having a hard time understanding how the pieces of the puzzle fit together. I just don't see them cutting ties with Zimmer or Naylor. I don't mind Zimmer as I think he would be an excellent 4th OF, but I have little use for Naylor. In fact, I'd trade his brother to a team that would take Josh as well, and I would hate to see Bo go. Again, this is an example of where I hope that my opinion is wrong about a player. So, if I'm right then they'll have room for 1 corner OF bat. Does that go to Jones, a trade, or a FA? I have no f'n clue. Where we could see a significant offensive difference is at C if they choose to address the issue. 2B will work itself out as Freeman continues to progress. He's exactly the type of hitter you like. I doubt that he'll ever have Brantley's moderate power, but he can certainly put the bat on the ball like Michael and carry a silly OBP. Good defender at 2B as well.

 

[xmasbuck]

every team in the division would love to see us present a lineup of 9 myles straws

 

[LL3]

every team in the division would love to see us present a lineup of 9 myles straws

I'm pretty certain that was not the GM @CATS44 intent, but in a similar vein, I would be quite interested in seeing 7 "Straws" with JRam and Franmil for a season....especially if they could defend their positions in the same realm as "CF Straw". With our pitching staff, that would be quite interesting... fun.

 

[Criznit]

every team in the division would love to see us present a lineup of 9 myles straws

I am glad we have him, a definite improvement to our OF overall. But Houston did trade him for our 4th-ish best bullpen arm and a guy who probably didn't crack our top 25 prospects and he will also likely be exposed in the Rule 5 draft, so there's that.

He's good at setting the table, but needs the big fat guy to sit down and eat everything in sight..

 

[thestatman]

Straw is an upgrade in center field and has a pretty good on base percentage. He won't make anyone forget who Kenny Lofton was and won't make All Star appearances either.

 

[Mott the Hoople]

Outside of the young pitching development, the best thing to happen this season is getting Myles Straw.
Before he came, our OF was an adventure. I think he is an absolute wizard in CF and covers a tremendous amount of ground. I've said it before, he steals a double every game. Putting Zimmer in RF gives us a + OF defense.
On offense he knows how to take a pitch, and work a walk. Then he makes other team aware that he could steal a base.
Straw and Amed batting 1-2 make us pretty interesting at the top of the order.

 

[CATS44]

1) The difference in SLG between Chicago and Cleveland is totally driven by batting average. If BA goes up, so does SLG.

2) Fans continue to make a big deal that Chicago lost both Robert and Jimenez. (It is a big deal)

But then they tend to downplay the loss of Bieber, Civale, and Plesac. (This is a much bigger deal)

Will Chicago's offense be better next year with Jimenez and Robert? On paper, absolutely.

Will Chicago's rotation be better next season? That is nearly impossible. Like the 2019 Bomba Squad couldn't maintain a freakish year when everything went right, the Chicago rotation is highly unlikely to come close to, let alone equal 2021...because everything went right.

Now, from Clevelands side..

If, as GM, I do what I propose to do with $70 mil, our offense will go from below average to well above average. We will significantly close the gap.

And our rotation, with a healthy top three, plus a full season from Quantrill and TMac, will not merely match Chicago, but surpass it.

As GM, I can't deal with what ifs, as in what if our rotation had stayed healthy. Thats for fans and media. But as GM, I do have to analyze the relative strengths and weaknesses between Chicago and US.

In terms of wins and losses, what did losing most of our rotation cost? As GM, my estimate is between 10-12 wins. As GM, I'm not looking at the deficit between the two teams being as great as the fans and media make it.

****************

Taking off my GM hat for a moment, and I hope it only bends...not breaks...the rules of this thread...

As a fan, I'm thinking what if in terms of this season. What if we were in a near dead heat with Chicago right now?

Would I like to go into that five game series with the White Sox with a rotation of Biebs-Civale-Plesac-Quantril-TMac just as theirs starts to limp?

You're damn right I would.

When it comes to offense in baseball, pitching is like Mr Colts Army revolver, the great Equalizer.

 

[xmasbuck]

Outside of the young pitching development, the best thing to happen this season is getting Myles Straw.
Before he came, our OF was an adventure. I think he is an absolute wizard in CF and covers a tremendous amount of ground. I've said it before, he steals a double every game. Putting Zimmer in RF gives us a + OF defense.
On offense he knows how to take a pitch, and work a walk. Then he makes other team aware that he could steal a base.
Straw and Amed batting 1-2 make us pretty interesting at the top of the order.

and that'll be great as long as his #s in his first 35 games in the AL hold - they're all significantly better than in houston indeed his current ops is 100 pts better than in houston - if we're gonna overemphasize the effect stolen bases have in today's game we need also to realize that straw hits into an inordinate # of double plays

 

[xmasbuck]

1) The difference in SLG between Chicago and Cleveland is totally driven by batting average. If BA goes up, so does SLG.

2) Fans continue to make a big deal that Chicago lost both Robert and Jimenez. (It is a big deal)

But then they tend to downplay the loss of Bieber, Civale, and Plesac. (This is a much bigger deal)

Will Chicago's offense be better next year with Jimenez and Robert? On paper, absolutely.

Will Chicago's rotation be better next season? That is nearly impossible. Like the 2019 Bomba Squad couldn't maintain a freakish year when everything went right, the Chicago rotation is highly unlikely to come close to, let alone equal 2021...because everything went right.

Now, from Clevelands side..

If, as GM, I do what I propose to do with $70 mil, our offense will go from below average to well above average. We will significantly close the gap.

And our rotation, with a healthy top three, plus a full season from Quantrill and TMac, will not merely match Chicago, but surpass it.

As GM, I can't deal with what ifs, as in what if our rotation had stayed healthy. Thats for fans and media. But as GM, I do have to analyze the relative strengths and weaknesses between Chicago and US.

In terms of wins and losses, what did losing most of our rotation cost? As GM, my estimate is between 10-12 wins. As GM, I'm not looking at the deficit between the two teams being as great as the fans and media make it.

****************

Taking off my GM hat for a moment, and I hope it only bends...not breaks...the rules of this thread...

As a fan, I'm thinking what if in terms of this season. What if we were in a near dead heat with Chicago right now?

Would I like to go into that five game series with the White Sox with a rotation of Biebs-Civale-Plesac-Quantril-TMac just as theirs starts to limp?

You're damn right I would.

When it comes to offense in baseball, pitching is like Mr Colts Army revolver, the great Equalizer.

held the yankees to 22 runs in 2 games last season in the playoffs

 

[Gson]

and that'll be great as long as his #s in his first 35 games in the AL hold - they're all significantly better than in houston indeed his current ops is 100 pts better than in houston - if we're gonna overemphasize the effect stolen bases have in today's game we need also to realize that straw hits into an inordinate # of double plays

Fast guys who hit the ball hard at an infielder..do that.. hitting it hard is what Straw tries to do.. "at em".. not so much..

 

[33Y0]

Fast guys who hit the ball hard at an infielder..do that.. hitting it hard is what Straw tries to do.. "at em".. not so much..

Yeahhhh, Straw is in the bottom 13th percentile in MLB in average exit velocity.. yet in the 95th percentile in sprint speed.

 

[LL3]

Yeahhhh, Straw is in the bottom 13th percentile in MLB in average exit velocity.. yet in the 95th percentile in sprint speed.

I just figured he comes up with runners on base and tends to put the ball in play

I wondered if this GIDP "frenzy" (he has 12 in 469 ab this season) is typical for him, or is it a fluke?
In about 200 ML at bats mostly in 19/20, he hit into -- 2 ...so he obviously does not have a long MLB track record.
Over 1880+ AB's in the Minors he banged into -- 27.
I'm not sure how that all translates or is predictive of the future, but perhaps it offers some context.

 

[Gson]

..but back to the subject at hand...

Run Prevention: LHRP in Our Bullpen..

GM's make their hay by finding and exploiting an imbalanced market opportunity.. The Guardians.. already realize that they have at least a top three & possibly theee best starting pitching staffs and depth in the combined majors/minors.. What they don't have enough of is port side high leverage relief pitching.. This is an area the Guards are in need of.. There are four guys that I would like to offer as a target to get one during this off season:

Blake Walston & Tommy Henry DBax: Both are currrently with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Neither will require a 40 man roster spot for the 2022 season.. Both offer the kind of talent from the left side that could become similar to what the Indians received from Andew Miller during the 2016 season.. While both are still being considered as SP's in the DBax system.. they'd be best served in this role: LHRP... As part of a larger deal with the DBax.. I'd suggest Adrian Del Castillo C, and Alek Thomas OF as possibilities..

Dax Fulton Mia: This big guy isn't a flame thrower.. he's a pitcher who relies on throwing strikes in the zone where he wants in the zone.. with the shape and speed in the zone that he wants.. This is a control monster who doesn't even know how to spell Bob Wickman.. let alone pitch like him.. As part of a larger deal with the Marlins.. I'd suggest Joe Mack C, and JJ Bleday OF as possibilities..

Brandon Williamson Sea: Is more of an SP than an RP.. but wouldn't remain that way if he was acquired by the Guardians.. This guy, again, is a strike thrower who fills up the zone with good to very good stuff.. His calling card is a fastball that explodes out of his hand.. it's not a velo only pitch.. it's a pitch that just gets there early.. As part of a larger deal with the Mariners.. I'd suggest Harry Ford C, and Julio Rodriquez OF as possibilities..

It's not a mistake that the larger deals offer both a catcher and an OF'er..

So.. starting with Plesac.. or perhaps not.. how do we get one or more of these guys.. perhaps, with some of the guys listed as being part of a larger deal.. or someone else?..

Thoughts?

 

[Benway]

that'll be great as long as his #s in his first 35 games in the AL hold

For what it's worth, Houston is in the AL, though I'm not sure what this means for Straw's possible regression to the mean.

 

[sportscoach]

For what it's worth, Houston is in the AL, though I'm not sure what this means for Straw's possible regression to the mean.

If you look at his numbers, I dont feel like there is going to be a lot if any regression to him. He has been given a chance to play everyday. He had 325 ABs in 90ish games with Houston and 140ish ABs in the 35 games with Cleveland. The only major difference between Houston and Cleveland numbers is his Line drive percentage and ground ball percentages. He has been hitting more LDs since coming to Cleveland and less groundballs. If he can keep that up, there won't be any regression at all...