Rule 5 draft talk

[CATS44]

Here's the problem...

IMO these seven have to be rostered..

Freeman
Rocchio
Valera
Lavastida
Cantillo
Morris
Pilkington

Now, lets look at the present position roster....and we normally have 20.

We aren't dropping Jones and Arias.

Two catchers.
Franmil
Bradley
Naylor
Jose
Amed
Straw
Gimenez
Miller

With the four position prospects, that makes 16.

We can keep four out of these.

Clement
Harold
Chang
Zimmer
Mercado
Johnson

Palacios
Tena
Noel
Kwan
O Gonzalez
Benson
Bracho
Scott
Planez

You can pick your favorites to keep or your favorites to lose or expose...but no matter how you cut it, we are going to give away talent.

Do you like Chang, the fav du jour for many? Who do you want to give away in order to keep him?

IF you insist that Kwan has to be kept, who do you want to see let go?

The same with Gonzalez.

Would you rather keep waiting on players you've been waiting on forever, or do you prefer the promise of the kids coming?

For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.

We have boxed our selves into a corner.

 

[Criznit]

Here's the problem...

IMO these seven have to be rostered..

Freeman
Rocchio
Valera
Lavastida
Cantillo
Morris
Pilkington

Now, lets look at the present position roster....and we normally have 20.

We aren't dropping Jones and Arias.

Two catchers.
Franmil
Bradley
Naylor
Jose
Amed
Straw
Gimenez
Miller

With the four position prospects, that makes 16.

We can keep four out of these.

Clement
Harold
Chang
Zimmer
Mercado
Johnson

Palacios
Tena
Noel
Kwan
O Gonzalez
Benson
Bracho
Scott
Planez

You can pick your favorites to keep or your favorites to lose or expose...but no matter how you cut it, we are going to give away talent.

Do you like Chang, the fav du jour for many? Who do you want to give away in order to keep him?

IF you insist that Kwan has to be kept, who do you want to see let go?

The same with Gonzalez.

Would you rather keep waiting on players you've been waiting on forever, or do you prefer the promise of the kids coming?

For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.

We have boxed our selves into a corner.

Well put together, your add list is spot on., but it is time to remove Bracho from the convo. No one will pick him and if they do - wish him luck.

Scott - willing to lose.
Benson - willing to lose/trade for rights.
O.Gonz - swap out for Harold right now - if we don't roster him he is gone, Rule 5 doesn't apply.
We can add a backup catcher after the Rule 5
Planez - similar to Bracho - if someone wants to hold him all year on an ML roster, good for him.
Kwan over Johnson.
Chang over Clement.
DFA Vargas. <- this sucks but is reasonable.
Mercado ???? If we add Kwan - I'd DFA.

We'll lose someone(s) - however because other teams have to be in a similar boat, I hope/expect only a few of them will have a 40 man spot or 2 open.

 

[Tondo]

Here's the problem...

IMO these seven have to be rostered..

Freeman
Rocchio
Valera
Lavastida
Cantillo
Morris
Pilkington

Now, lets look at the present position roster....and we normally have 20.

We aren't dropping Jones and Arias.

Two catchers.
Franmil
Bradley
Naylor
Jose
Amed
Straw
Gimenez
Miller

With the four position prospects, that makes 16.

We can keep four out of these.

Clement
Harold
Chang
Zimmer
Mercado
Johnson

Palacios
Tena
Noel
Kwan
O Gonzalez
Benson
Bracho
Scott
Planez

You can pick your favorites to keep or your favorites to lose or expose...but no matter how you cut it, we are going to give away talent.

Do you like Chang, the fav du jour for many? Who do you want to give away in order to keep him?

IF you insist that Kwan has to be kept, who do you want to see let go?

The same with Gonzalez.

Would you rather keep waiting on players you've been waiting on forever, or do you prefer the promise of the kids coming?

For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.

We have boxed our selves into a corner.

Yes, it's a numbers game problem on the position player side, but it doesn't need to be a 20/20 split, could go up to 22/18 pos players vs pitchers if the depth arms are all in AAA, which is most probably the case (or add NRI bully arms later in favor of IL guys like Naylor).

With that said, we can only keep 1 or 2 of Miller, Clement, Chang. All 3 have been showcased and will find a taker if shopped. Same goes for Harold, O. Gonzalez and Mercado as RHB OF and Zimmer, Johnson, Kwan, Palacios, Benson as LHB OF. I'd guess 3 of the 6 RHB are kept and 3 of the 5 LHB.

Palacios is a lock because he's a LHB 2B/OF to complement the keeper of the RHBs currently on the roster. That leaves 2 of Zimm, Johnson, Kwan, Benson.

I'd keep Miller, Clement, O. Gonzalez, Palacios, Johnson and Kwan. That would run the count up to 21 hitters. Get anything for the others.

Then, I'd try to add Tena and Noel or include them in trades. Tena's spot is in a battle with Miller/Clement/Arias, so one of the 4 needs to be dealt too. Noel goes straight up vs O. Gonzalez. Pick your favorite, we can't keep both, and I can see them leaving off both. The other, find a deal.

On the pitching side, I'd try to deal Hentges and roster A. Scott instead. The others don't hold much value, JC Mejia a little maybe. Not sure we can hang around Vargas anymore, it's either him or Mejia as long term pitching project, maybe neither anymore.

 

[Martyinnewyork]

Oscar Gonzalez, if not rostered/protected, can still return to the Indians/Guardians as a minor league free agent, correct?

 

[Martyinnewyork]

This whole process of deciding on who to keep on the 40 is made more complicated by guys like Chang and Zimmer, who seemed fairly likely to be let go just several weeks ago. Both have shown enough to make us think seriously about keeping them around.

 

[Tondo]

Oscar Gonzalez, if not rostered/protected, can still return to the Indians/Guardians as a minor league free agent, correct?

Sure, he's free to sign with anyone, maybe Korea too. Guardians are the least likely to get him back, I'd think, but stranger things have happened. The OF need is there, NOW, if they don't roster him, the FO might not even want him back.

Offseason will be fun and potentially frustrating to follow, but this FO has earned my trust to make reasonable decisions.

 

[Martyinnewyork]

Noel and Tena also keep hitting. Can’t keep everyone. Need to trade some guys.

 

[Derek]

Noel and Tena also keep hitting. Can’t keep everyone. Need to trade some guys.

The Rule 5 draft isn’t anything to worry about.

There might be a dozen picks made across the entire league, and it’s typically pitchers like Stephan or Oviedo, because you can just stash them in the bullpen all year. Either that, or injured guys that they can keep on the IL.

 

[MadThinker88]

Yes, it's a numbers game problem on the position player side, but it doesn't need to be a 20/20 split, could go up to 22/18 pos players vs pitchers if the depth arms are all in AAA, which is most probably the case (or add NRI bully arms later in favor of IL guys like Naylor).

With that said, we can only keep 1 or 2 of Miller, Clement, Chang. All 3 have been showcased and will find a taker if shopped. Same goes for Harold, O. Gonzalez and Mercado as RHB OF and Zimmer, Johnson, Kwan, Palacios, Benson as LHB OF. I'd guess 3 of the 6 RHB are kept and 3 of the 5 LHB.

Palacios is a lock because he's a LHB 2B/OF to complement the keeper of the RHBs currently on the roster. That leaves 2 of Zimm, Johnson, Kwan, Benson.

I'd keep Miller, Clement, O. Gonzalez, Palacios, Johnson and Kwan. That would run the count up to 21 hitters. Get anything for the others.

Then, I'd try to add Tena and Noel or include them in trades. Tena's spot is in a battle with Miller/Clement/Arias, so one of the 4 needs to be dealt too. Noel goes straight up vs O. Gonzalez. Pick your favorite, we can't keep both, and I can see them leaving off both. The other, find a deal.

On the pitching side, I'd try to deal Hentges and roster A. Scott instead. The others don't hold much value, JC Mejia a little maybe. Not sure we can hang around Vargas anymore, it's either him or Mejia as long term pitching project, maybe neither anymore.

The part I put in bold is key..
The roster in November is not going to be the same roster that goes into spring training yet alone breaks camp to start the 2022 season.
There are always changes... Every.. single.. year..

The FO could in theory go with a 25-15 position player/ pitcher split to protect the great value players (regardless of position/ role) and use the winter meetings & free agency to adjust the setup of the team for next year..

Yes, Oscar Gonzalez could be kept off the 40 man roster at the deadline.. Become a minor league free agent and then wait for the R5 draft to happen before signing with any team or resigning back with CLE.

 

[MadThinker88]

As for players eligible for earlier question of who is eligible for the R5 this year, here is the list for 1st time eligible (2021 draft)

I have the similar picture lists for 2020 and 2019..
Just trying to figure out how to attach as pictures (the above was copied from a recent twitter post)

 

[CATS44]

So many comments like, 'We need to make some trades.'

Except, how does the FO trade away enough players to ease the problem before the rosters have to be set for the Rule Five, when...

1) So many teams the same problem.

2) The other GMs know our situation, and won't be eager to help us out.

3) Other GMs know they can sit back and wait to pick up our leftovers for free.

***************

The pitching side is somewhat better, but not if the FO decides to overload the position side.

Bieber
Civale
Plesac
Quantrill
TMac
Morgan
Stephan
Karinchak
Clase
Morris
Cantillo
Pilkington
Vargas
Wittgren
Sandlin

Thats 15.

Mejia
Allen
Hentges
Moss

Hill
F Perez
Nelson
Bloom
Pinto

Thats nine more....24 total.

If we release or leave unprotected any of the first 22, they are gone.

The last two may be safe, but relievers are the least safe in the Rule Five.

This season we've used 23 pitchers.
In 2019 it was 28. In 2018 it was 26.

You get the idea. It is probable that every pitcher we have right now, except Vargas, will be needed next year, including the two relief prospects.

The FO is not going to give away its pitching depth. It is not going to give away pitching talent to make room for more position players.

Picking up other teams pitching talent has been a trade mark of the Indians for years.

*********

This forum has moved in some cases from insisting that we didn't have a 40 man problem to rationalizing the possible loss of Vargas...getting nothing in return.

***************

Almost every player/prospect we are talking about had trade value over the last ten months or had trade value during this season.

But now we are seemingly okay with giving it away, instead of having packaged some of it for a return.

 

[NorthCoastBias]

Feels like a lot of you are expending a great deal of mental bandwidth on something that's fairly inconsequential.

 

[Martyinnewyork]

Keep in mind that we lost nobody in the 2019 Rule 5 draft. Last year we lost Oviedo and Tom after not protecting Oscar Gonzalez, Benson, Jose Fermin and Juan Hillman.

Do we have players comparable (or better) to Oviedo and Tom who we won’t be able to roster this year? That’s the question.

 

[sportscoach]

Keep in mind that we lost nobody in the 2019 Rule 5 draft. Last year we lost Oviedo and Tom after not protecting Oscar Gonzalez, Benson, Jose Fermin and Juan Hillman.

Do we have players comparable (or better) to Oviedo and Tom who we won’t be able to roster this year? That’s the question.

At the current moment, yes to your question... We just are in the dark about how the organization feels about the players since they are so tight lipped about things.

We will do some a trade or two in November (at least I would put good money on it), but for who, I have no clue..

 

[PPark]

The Rule 5 draft isn’t anything to worry about.

There might be a dozen picks made across the entire league, and it’s typically pitchers like Stephan or Oviedo, because you can just stash them in the bullpen all year. Either that, or injured guys that they can keep on the IL.

Yes. Risk assessment has been lost here. We’re talking about burning an active roster spot for an entire season or at least 90 days for an injured player.

These players have to be capable of providing a useable skill NOW to an MLB club, and note most players fail their first brush with this level. Club’s are attempting to thread a incredibly small needle here.