Rule 5 draft talk

[CATS44]

We have several that are much better than Tom. Tom wasn't considered a real prospect.

Vargas would probably be considered better than Oviedo, because the org chose to roster him, instead of Oviedo.

Looking at just the fangraphs top prospect lists, Tom was not listed in 2018, 2019, 2020.

In contrast every prospect we are talking about now, except Gonzalez and Benson, was on the latest list. But even they got mentioned as toolsy, but with contact issues. And Benson was a first rounder.

 

[Criznit]

Feels like a lot of you are expending a great deal of mental bandwidth on something that's fairly inconsequential.

This is correct, however I find this sort of stuff fun to ruminate over which is why I waste my time with it.

 

[CATS44]

Yes. Risk assessment has been lost here. We’re talking about burning an active roster spot for an entire season or at least 90 days for an injured player.

These players have to be capable of providing a useable skill NOW to an MLB club, and note most players fail their first brush with this level. Club’s are attempting to thread a incredibly small needle here.

Risk assessment is the name of the games, as is risk aversion.

Does Chang become the next Urshela?

Does Miller or Polacios become the next Jeff Kent or Joey Wendel?

Does Kwan become the next Robbie Grossman?

Does Gonzalez become the next Aguilar?

Does Vargas become the next Clevinger?

Does Moss become the next Quintana?

Does Hentges become the next Andrew Miller?

Does Mejia become the next Jose Mesa?

Does Tena become the next Jorge Polanco?

Does Zimmer become Grady Sizemore lite?

None are individually likely, but as a group, one of them will.

Fear is a great motivator at times, but is more often the cause of paralysis...and our FO seems to have been paralyzed by fear for several years. They have looked at Aguilar and Urshela, instead of looking at the results of when they have acted boldly....trading top prospects for a World Series ( Miller) and a premier closer (Hand).

Now they are faced with a choice of which future production they want to let go for zip.

 

[CATS44]

This is correct, however I find this sort of stuff fun to ruminate over which is why I waste my time with it.

I disagree that this Rule Five will be inconsequential.

 

[Criznit]

I disagree that this Rule Five will be inconsequential.

FAIRLY inconsequential.

 

[LL3]

Risk assessment is the name of the games, as is risk aversion.

Does Chang become the next Urshela?

Does Miller or Polacios become the next Jeff Kent or Joey Wendel?

Does Kwan become the next Robbie Grossman?

Does Gonzalez become the next Aguilar?

Does Vargas become the next Clevinger?

Does Moss become the next Quintana?

Does Hentges become the next Andrew Miller?

Does Mejia become the next Jose Mesa?

Does Tena become the next Jorge Polanco?

Does Zimmer become Grady Sizemore lite?

None are individually likely, but as a group, one of them will.

Fear is a great motivator at times, but is more often the cause of paralysis...and our FO seems to have been paralyzed by fear for several years. They have looked at Aguilar and Urshela, instead of looking at the results of when they have acted boldly....trading top prospects for a World Series ( Miller) and a premier closer (Hand).

Now they are faced with a choice of which future production they want to let go for zip.

Mostly rhetorical< I know, but I'll play it out anyway....

Does Chang become the next Urshela? NO

Does Miller or Polacios become the next Jeff Kent or Joey Wendel? Kent - No Wendle ? - a realistic chance (40%)

Does Kwan become the next Robbie Grossman? I'd like to think so, but -- No

Does Gonzalez become the next Aguilar? No

Does Vargas become the next Clevinger? No

Does Moss become the next Quintana? No

Does Hentges become the next Andrew Miller? NO

Does Mejia become the next Jose Mesa? I like your thinking -- small chance for "Mesa"...decent chance he is useful bullpen arm

Does Tena become the next Jorge Polanco? YES -- long shot, sure, but this would be my bold prediction

Does Zimmer become Grady Sizemore lite? No

 

[biggie4]

Zimmer is already Sizemore-lite.
I refuse to argue degrees of lite.

 

[PPark]

Risk assessment is the name of the games, as is risk aversion.

Does Chang become the next Urshela?

Does Miller or Polacios become the next Jeff Kent or Joey Wendel?

Does Kwan become the next Robbie Grossman?

Does Gonzalez become the next Aguilar?

Does Vargas become the next Clevinger?

Does Moss become the next Quintana?

Does Hentges become the next Andrew Miller?

Does Mejia become the next Jose Mesa?

Does Tena become the next Jorge Polanco?

Does Zimmer become Grady Sizemore lite?

None are individually likely, but as a group, one of them will.

Fear is a great motivator at times, but is more often the cause of paralysis...and our FO seems to have been paralyzed by fear for several years. They have looked at Aguilar and Urshela, instead of looking at the results of when they have acted boldly....trading top prospects for a World Series ( Miller) and a premier closer (Hand).

Now they are faced with a choice of which future production they want to let go for zip.

Sure they’re trying to pick a needle from a haystack but that’s occurring on both ends of the equation with part of the cost being a spot not only on the 40-man but the active roster for an entire year. Also we’re talking about players that won’t bring much if anything to an MLB roster right now.

We’re also talking about players with little to no market value as we move down the list.

The perceived risk on the board is way out of alignment.

 

[Criznit]

Not sure how many we can protect in the minor league portion, but Richard Paz seems like a decent candidate to get picked.

 

[CATS44]

We are discussing DFAing five of our top 21 prospects going into this year.

We are also discussing exposing three prospects who may be very close to, if not in, our top twenty now.

That is hardly inconsquential, or lacking in risk.

 

[LL3]

We are discussing DFAing five of our top 21 prospects going into this year.

We are also discussing exposing three prospects who may be very close to, if not in, our top twenty now.

That is hardly inconsquential, or lacking in risk.

I'm not sure that is an accurate portrayal...we are not designating these prospects for assignment (removing them from the 40...none of which we are discussing are on the 40), but are leaving some unprotected for the Rule 5 draft. It is a very different process that passing them through waivers. Guys like Yu Chang, Mercado, Harold would be DFA's

 

[BimboColesHair]

Not sure how many we can protect in the minor league portion, but Richard Paz seems like a decent candidate to get picked.

38, the AAA roster is where they roster guys to protect them for that portion. Why guys like Oscar Gonzalez and Will Benson were moved to the AAA roster in November of 2020, even though they started the 2021 season in AA.

And I'll say the same thing in here that I've said everywhere else. Yes, they're going to have a bit of a crunch, but it isn't going to be as bad as a lot of people are thinking it will be.

 

[daddywags]

I can see the issue but it seems like a good kind of problem to have. If history is a guide, we stand to lose one or maaaybe two guys in the actual Rule 5 draft and I have enough trust in our decision makers to believe it's more likely than not we roster the correct ones. Picking up Stephan this year is enough to make up for whomever we might lose come December IMO.

 

[CATS44]

I'm not sure that is an accurate portrayal...we are not designating these prospects for assignment (removing them from the 40...none of which we are discussing are on the 40), but are leaving some unprotected for the Rule 5 draft. It is a very different process that passing them through waivers. Guys like Yu Chang, Mercado, Harold would be DFA's

We are talking about DFAing Johnson, Miller, Allen, Hentges and Vargas...all in our top 21 last before the season.

Bimbo keeps saying there isn't much problem. Losing a Palacios, Tena, Moss, Allen, Hentges, or Mejia is a problem...and the kind of problems that other teams have that the Indians have made a living on.

Asdrubal and Choo weren't problems with Seattle, because the Mariners had excess at both positions, and needed to clear roster space. Stephan wasn't a problem for NY and Wittgren wasn't a problem for Miami. Esmil Rodgers wasn't a problem for Colorado, and Scrabble wasn't a problem for St Louis.

 

[LL3]

We are talking about DFAing Johnson, Miller, Allen, Hentges and Vargas...all in our top 21 last before the season.

Bimbo keeps saying there isn't much problem. Losing a Palacios, Tena, Moss, Allen, Hentges, or Mejia is a problem...and the kind of problems that other teams have that the Indians have made a living on.

Asdrubal and Choo weren't problems with Seattle, because the Mariners had excess at both positions, and needed to clear roster space. Stephan wasn't a problem for NY and Wittgren wasn't a problem for Miami. Esmil Rodgers wasn't a problem for Colorado, and Scrabble wasn't a problem for St Louis.

How shocking would it be if the Guardians did not fill out their 40 man, to save a space to pick a player of their own? Perhaps not likely but it is conceivable to me, as a number of teams have their own roster crunches...there are a preponderance of articles on just that subject for many teams, not just here.