• Changing RCF's index page, please click on "Forums" to access the forums.

Rule 5 Talk 23

Do Not Sell My Personal Information
CDAV45 said:
The only cherry picked sample is the SSS you're using KS. Battenfield has been very good as a professional and his downturn has cause that has been explained. He still pitched to a 3.63 ERA as a 24 yr old(25 in August) in AAA. Hitters struggle to make good contact. Especially on his heavy FB. Like I said, something is amiss here and that information isn't privy to us. I'll be very surprised if he is not taken. Should that happen my personal opinion is that it will be a mistake to have protected Pilkington, Gaddis and Curry over Battenfield.

I have confidence that a very good 5th starter can come from anyone of Battenfield, Pilkington, Gaddis and maybe even Curry. Although do we need a 5th starter? Morris has to be factored in and he might be the 3rd best SP on the staff. Of course he has to stay healthy and that is yet to be seen, but the "stuff" is certainly there. I could see a Morris/Pilkington piggy back scenario to protect Cody and limit his IP while getting Konnor work as well.

In the end, all of Bibee, Williams, Espino and Allen could force their way in the rotation by midseason. Their upside is undeniable IMO. They'll need to separate the wheat from the chaff when that time comes. This team's competitive peak will be reached within 2 yrs. That's not to say we can't compete now which is obvious by this season's outcome, but we're going to be really f'n good within 2 yrs IMO.
Click to expand...
Huh, I cherry picked a sample which would BACK UP what you were saying. The goal was to find a sample ending with the season-end which would show more promise. And I tried, and that's what I got.

ERA just doesn't mean a whole lot in those kind of samples , and if we thought it did he probably would've been not only added but also called up in place of Curry/Gaddis.

But yeah I'm obviously not omniscient and there could be something I'm missing out on with Battenfield but GPI just posted their list which had Curry and Gaddis slightly above Battenfield and I think that makes enough sense.

IMO there are 3 kinds of players:
Tier A: Protect for Rule 5 / Keep on 40 Man
Tier B: Keep on 40 man if already there, but don't protect if not there
Tier C: Don't protect for Rule 5 / DFA if on 40 man

You could make an argument that all of those 4 pitchers are Tier B's meaning the ones that stay on the 40 man are the ones who are already on it. McCarty was Tier C while Pilkington was Tier B so he stayed.
 
KluberSociety said:
Huh, I cherry picked a sample which would BACK UP what you were saying. The goal was to find a sample ending with the season-end which would show more promise. And I tried, and that's what I got.

ERA just doesn't mean a whole lot in those kind of samples , and if we thought it did he probably would've been not only added but also called up in place of Curry/Gaddis.

But yeah I'm obviously not omniscient and there could be something I'm missing out on with Battenfield but GPI just posted their list which had Curry and Gaddis slightly above Battenfield and I think that makes enough sense.

IMO there are 3 kinds of players:
Tier A: Protect for Rule 5 / Keep on 40 Man
Tier B: Keep on 40 man if already there, but don't protect if not there
Tier C: Don't protect for Rule 5 / DFA if on 40 man

You could make an argument that all of those 4 pitchers are Tier B's meaning the ones that stay on the 40 man are the ones who are already on it. McCarty was Tier C while Pilkington was Tier B so he stayed.
Click to expand...
I feel you are disregarding the cause while ignoring his history, and under the correct context any stat has meaning. What it shows is that Battenfield can pitch effectively without a high strikeout rate. Does that sound like one of the current SP? Not only is he similarly difficult to square up, his stuff is harder and should he return to the very good control he demonstrated prior to this year then he will be something very useful and maybe more effective than who I'm comparing him to.

Having said that, my panties aren't in a bunch like GSon dickishly suggests as I stated there is something we just don't know. That's the jist of this conversation for me because his upside and overall performance is superior to Pilkington's, Curry's and Gaddis', even if only slightly.

I agree with your tier system. The only difference here is that I would have protected Battenfield and exposed one of the other 3. It might not matter in the end if they add a SP like Lopez or Woodruff. Maybe that's the indicator here?
 
CDAV45 said:
I feel you are disregarding the cause while ignoring his history, and under the correct context any stat has meaning. What it shows is that Battenfield can pitch effectively without a high strikeout rate. Does that sound like one of the current SP? Not only is he similarly difficult to square up, his stuff is harder and should he return to the very good control he demonstrated prior to this year then he will be something very useful and maybe more effective than who I'm comparing him to.

Having said that, my panties aren't in a bunch like GSon dickishly suggests as I stated there is something we just don't know. That's the jist of this conversation for me because his upside and overall performance is superior to Pilkington's, Curry's and Gaddis', even if only slightly.

I agree with your tier system. The only difference here is that I would have protected Battenfield and exposed one of the other 3. It might not matter in the end if they add a SP like Lopez or Woodruff. Maybe that's the indicator here?
Click to expand...
I'm sorry but you need a much higher sample to demonstrate that an it also really needs to be above MLB hitters. Stats like xFIP are a much better way of evaluating minor leaguers over 1 season and are proven to be better predictors of future ERA than ERA itself. Now if someone can overperform for a long period then that means something but it's just extremely rare to the point where it's usually a fluke. Even Quantrill has probably had some combination of skill and luck so far with regards to overperformance. But even a 4 ERA guy has some serious value.

So what you're saying is you would've called up Battenfield over Curry/Gaddis which is what added them to the 40 man? I think it's hard to argue against Pilkington being added earlier in the year so I think it's mainly down to whether or not you would've been for that.
 
KluberSociety said:
I'm sorry but you need a much higher sample to demonstrate that an it also really needs to be above MLB hitters. Stats like xFIP are a much better way of evaluating minor leaguers over 1 season and are proven to be better predictors of future ERA than ERA itself. Now if someone can overperform for a long period then that means something but it's just extremely rare to the point where it's usually a fluke. Even Quantrill has probably had some combination of skill and luck so far with regards to overperformance. But even a 4 ERA guy has some serious value.

So what you're saying is you would've called up Battenfield over Curry/Gaddis which is what added them to the 40 man? I think it's hard to argue against Pilkington being added earlier in the year so I think it's mainly down to whether or not you would've been for that.
Click to expand...
So look at his FIP/xFIP prior to this season KS. Again, you're basing everything off of his 2022 season and it's an outlier. FIP and xFIP numbers are going to be flawed for any pitcher when they are making mechanical changes and struggling with their control because of it. His BB9 were up while his SO9 and HR9 were down. I need to see the end result of his established and repeated mechanical changes to make a final determination. All I know is that up until the 22 season his strikeout rate was high, walk rate low, ERA low, FIP low and he's been durable as hell. While he lost his good control, his stuff has ticked up a notch or 2. I think Bimbo said that his FB was hitting 98 and that his offspeed pitches ticked up as well. Up until this season, Peyton's walk rate was better than Quantrill's in the minors by a full walk or more/9IP. If he can regain his good control then I see his floor as a Quantrill like SP. Worst case scenario is that he never regains that good control and he becomes a durable BOR SP. The only thing that can change my view on Battenfield at this point is Peyton himself because not you or anyone else has sustained statistical data that suggests otherwise.

It's hard to say that I would have called Battenfield up before the others because they wanted to make some slight mechanical changes. Better to work on those in the minors no? I believe they valued Peyton more at that time and viewed the others as more expendable or easier to expose. I don't know what changed. As I said before, clearly we're not privy to all the needed information on this decision.
 
Hmm... what's wrong with Battenfield....????

If a pitcher is attempting to force his way onto a major league rotation.. one of the better major league rotations in the league.. that pitcher needs to have a weapon.. perhaps more than one that is accompanied by the command and control of that or those weapons..

A low to mid 90's fastball... is not a weapon.. it's a plentiful commodity that can be found by any of 100 minor leagues teams with 8 to 10 pitchers..

Thats what Battenfield was featuring thru mid/late July of 2022 while in Akron.. Battenfield got the call to move up from Rubber Ducks to Clippers then, almost immediately to the parent club where he stayed for a whopping four days.. perhaps, it was a whole week?.... Then, without actually doing anything at with the parent club.. Peyton was returned to the Clippers.. After two starts separated by more than a full week in Columbus... Battenefield proceeded to shit the bed in Columbus..

That's his recent most legacy.. a call up without ever being given the chance to show anything to anyone.. he's unceremoniously booted back to Columbus where he started 2 games.. The first game back in a Columbus uni.. was superb.. the next.. he was pulled early in the fifth inning.. He then went on to give up almost a run per inning over the next 20..

This isn't working on something.. (btw.. MiLB'ers are ALWAYS working on something.. if they're not, they're dying)

This is just poor.. most likely from poor physical and/or mental conditioning.. In order for Battenfield and his very average/nothing special repertoire to be effective.. both parts of his approach (mental and physical) need to be focused.. All the switching.. all the different sources of new information / messaging.. All the moving.. and not being given a chance.. says the club doesn't believe he's READY..... and everyone in baseball can see it.. That's why he was left off the protected list now.. What team wants to acquire a guy who has shown his club believes he can/will fail?.. Who wants to sacrifice an active roster spot on a guy on the roster that's that?..

This is when "...yeah but..." is offered, then, followed by a litany of statistics supporting or disproving any all of the past.. BTW.. the other three guys on that list.. have more proof they're not ready..

10 - 12 days from now.. we'll see how the Rule V draft results go.. and who remains..
 
Kids often get called up because they are ready for a certain present niche on the team, not necessarily because they are rated better in the long run.

I'm somewhat surprised that Battenfield wasn't protected, and I suspect that he would have been under normal circumstances. But our over saturation of prospects forced the hand of the FO.

We shall soon find out how much the refusal to trade some prospect depth is gonna hurt, if at all.
 
Rule 5 potential losses:

1. Ethan Hankins - not sure how easily he could be stashed on the IL for 2023, but between that possibility and draft pedigree/prospect status I could see a team grabbing him. Could be returned rather quickly.

2. Peyton Battenfield - AAA SP - another one who could get drafted just for evaluation.

3. Other pitchers - bully guys... Miko's track record "may" be enough for someone to roll the dice on. Misiaszek too.

4. Position players... GRod, Pries and Fry are they most likely to get picked, but it would be surprising.

Final thoughts.... Hankins gets picked/returned OR we trade him away. Also keep an eye on our 40 man, if we are still sitting at 39 - we may have a target...or 2.

The MILB portion of the draft should definitely result in some adds/subtracts..
 
I do not have access to BA, but they put out their best available Rule 5 players today. From just seeing previews in google search engines ... here are some of their players. So far, I saw 14 players listed (no Guardians from what I can tell).
  • Ronny Simon, SS/2B, Rays. ...
  • Malcom Nunez, 1B, Pirates. ...
  • Matt Gorski, OF, Pirates. ...
  • Antoine Kelly, LHP, Rangers. ...
  • Austin Shenton, 3B/1B, Rays. ...
  • Andrew Schultz, RHP, Phillies. ...
  • Ryan Fernandez, RHP, Red Sox. ...
  • Grant Anderson, RHP, Rangers. ...
  • Thad Ward, RHP, Red Sox. ...
  • Ryan Noda, 1B, Dodgers. ...
  • Cam Devanney, SS/3B, Brewers. ...
  • Jose Ramos, OF, Dodgers. ...
  • Adrian Hernandez, RHP, Blue Jays.
  • Erik Miller, LHP, Phillies
As noted by others, I doubt we are going to lose any of our position players but you never know. Pries would be the only one but there are good players noted above like Noda and Nunez (but high K rates). And, there are some good catchers like Milas to cover for a Fry being selected. And, teams usually pick more MILs and OF as they are easier to stash.

And, even though Nationals added a 40th player today, where they can cut Garrett or a Call before Rule 5 to pick; it just shows how many good players passing through waivers and teams are going to have to see if they want to take a risk on keeping Rule 5 pick and its rules or just be satisfied with a waiver wire pick-up that can be sent down and control. As I have said, I expect only 6-10 picks (versus high of 14 in past 10 year) as even teams like Colorado and Cincinnati who can double dip and stash guys are currently at 39 players (so do they cut someone in next week to pick 2?).

I am still a fan of taking a catcher in Rule 5 just as an insurance placeholder that can be returned if we sign someone. Yet, I never trust this ... ohhh, we were so close to signing .... but got outbid at the end. Catchers will go quickly once Murphy/Contreras logjam is broken free and Maile our last ditch backup is off the board leaving Hedges. At some point, Lavastida becomes better than other Tier 3-4 FAs just as he knows our pitchers from the minors and ST.
 
petes999 said:
I do not have access to BA, but they put out their best available Rule 5 players today. From just seeing previews in google search engines ... here are some of their players. So far, I saw 14 players listed (no Guardians from what I can tell).
  • Ronny Simon, SS/2B, Rays. ...
  • Malcom Nunez, 1B, Pirates. ...
  • Matt Gorski, OF, Pirates. ...
  • Antoine Kelly, LHP, Rangers. ...
  • Austin Shenton, 3B/1B, Rays. ...
  • Andrew Schultz, RHP, Phillies. ...
  • Ryan Fernandez, RHP, Red Sox. ...
  • Grant Anderson, RHP, Rangers. ...
  • Thad Ward, RHP, Red Sox. ...
  • Ryan Noda, 1B, Dodgers. ...
  • Cam Devanney, SS/3B, Brewers. ...
  • Jose Ramos, OF, Dodgers. ...
  • Adrian Hernandez, RHP, Blue Jays.
  • Erik Miller, LHP, Phillies
As noted by others, I doubt we are going to lose any of our position players but you never know. Pries would be the only one but there are good players noted above like Noda and Nunez (but high K rates). And, there are some good catchers like Milas to cover for a Fry being selected. And, teams usually pick more MILs and OF as they are easier to stash.

And, even though Nationals added a 40th player today, where they can cut Garrett or a Call before Rule 5 to pick; it just shows how many good players passing through waivers and teams are going to have to see if they want to take a risk on keeping Rule 5 pick and its rules or just be satisfied with a waiver wire pick-up that can be sent down and control. As I have said, I expect only 6-10 picks (versus high of 14 in past 10 year) as even teams like Colorado and Cincinnati who can double dip and stash guys are currently at 39 players (so do they cut someone in next week to pick 2?).

I am still a fan of taking a catcher in Rule 5 just as an insurance placeholder that can be returned if we sign someone. Yet, I never trust this ... ohhh, we were so close to signing .... but got outbid at the end. Catchers will go quickly once Murphy/Contreras logjam is broken free and Maile our last ditch backup is off the board leaving Hedges. At some point, Lavastida becomes better than other Tier 3-4 FAs just as he knows our pitchers from the minors and ST.
Click to expand...
FWIW (nothing) my gut tells me Thad Ward is this years rule 5 champ.
 
Criznit said:
FWIW (nothing) my gut tells me Thad Ward is this years rule 5 champ.
Click to expand...

Ward's walks are a bit higher than I would like...

Ronny Simon since he switch and we like those guys (joking)

I feel like if we are going to take someone in the Rule 5, it will be another hope for Stephan or RH bat with power....

Nunez was solid at AA, but I to much bust there for me...

Gson said:
I'd lay a few scheckels on Ryan Noda.. seems like an easy grab and stash..
Click to expand...

Noda is a left handed hitter though plus we really need a RH bat to mix in with Naylor. If this was 21, I would have said snag him, but he just doesn't fit what I believe we need (though I'm sure if they did snag him, we wouldn't really care that much lol

Of that list, I think the position players I would choose is Cam Devanney... He has been introduced to 1B and LF, but I think a full spring learning 1B, I think he could fit in...
 
sportscoach said:
Ward's walks are a bit higher than I would like...
Click to expand...
Im not interested in making a move for Ward, but think someone will (read MAY) and he will establish himself in the front end of someone's pen.

By "Champ" I mean he will be the most successful rule 5 draft pick in 2023.
 
Don't rule us out of taking another reliever (I give it 30% chance, 30% catcher, 10% 1B/OF if Rosario is on trade block - and Arias at SS and 30% skip). Right now, we just have 8ish relievers with Morris (if not starter), Pilk (who isn't really a reliever) or Herrin slotted for either that 8th pen slot. It's not a clear path, but its another area with trading Vargas that we are a little thin at if they avoided rostering Misiaszek, Miko and others due to bing deemed not ready by Spring. And, even if they are ready, there are other better arms in Rule 5 if FO left them off/unprotected.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Rubber Rim Job Podcast Video

Episode 3-14: "Time for Playoff Vengeance on Mickey"

Rubber Rim Job Podcast Spotify

Episode 3:14: " Time for Playoff Vengeance on Mickey."
Top