Out of the Rafters at the Q
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Rule 5 Talk 23
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KluberSociety
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Was just thinking about this some more - ultimately I agree with the direction the G's went in here, but like @CATS44 said, we were put in a bit of a self-induced pickle and that's why this situation even happened.
We decided that the value of whoever might be available in the R5 for us, is more than the opportunity cost of potentially losing Battenfield/Hankins, as well as of being able to get a year of cheap Maile.
There's some intriguing talent out there so I do think in the first round we will likely end up thinking "yeah it was worth it".
But a good case can be made for there needing to be no sacrifice, or at least being able to add 2 extra players while still having room for one pickup in the R5.
Now without Maile on the catcher front we're also backed into a corner after the R5 draft in which we'll have to add some sort of proven catcher as it is quite possible our floor for C performance is lowest in all of MLB with the high variance Naylor and struggling Lavastida currently looking like our tandem.
Given what appears to be out there I would not be surprised at all if both Hankins and Battenfield go untouched. I'd be more scared of value lost with Hankins but it would be such an odd pick that I would be less surprised if Battenfield was taken.
We decided that the value of whoever might be available in the R5 for us, is more than the opportunity cost of potentially losing Battenfield/Hankins, as well as of being able to get a year of cheap Maile.
There's some intriguing talent out there so I do think in the first round we will likely end up thinking "yeah it was worth it".
But a good case can be made for there needing to be no sacrifice, or at least being able to add 2 extra players while still having room for one pickup in the R5.
Now without Maile on the catcher front we're also backed into a corner after the R5 draft in which we'll have to add some sort of proven catcher as it is quite possible our floor for C performance is lowest in all of MLB with the high variance Naylor and struggling Lavastida currently looking like our tandem.
Given what appears to be out there I would not be surprised at all if both Hankins and Battenfield go untouched. I'd be more scared of value lost with Hankins but it would be such an odd pick that I would be less surprised if Battenfield was taken.
Just an update on Roster Counts for non-playoff teams ... surprised Nationals got down to 38 (didn't expect to be in position to draft 2). However, 2 teams I thought would take 2 - Reds and Rockies are still at 39. And Pirates at 38, left a lot of good guys off their roster as well. Orioles being Orioles, are now in good position to take 1 or 2. There are still few days to adjust more... either way (FA or waivers). But, how many teams after Rockies are really in position to nurture a Rule 5 guy other than Orioles and Brewers? And to compete, do they look at Rule 5 or FA? We will see Wed at 5pm
1. Nationals (55-107) - 38
2. A’s (60-102) - 40
3. Pirates (62-100) - 40
4. Reds (62-100) - 39
5. Royals (65-97) - 40
6. Tigers (66-96) - 39
7. Rangers (68-94) - 40
8. Rockies (68-94) - 38
9. Marlins (69-93) - 39
10. Angels (73-89) - 40
11. D-backs (74-88) - 40
12. Cubs (74-88) - 38
13. Twins (78-84) - 39
14. Red Sox (78-84) - 40
15. White Sox (81-81) - 36
16. Giants (81-81) - 38
17. Orioles (83-79) - 38
18. Brewers (86-76) - 38
1. Nationals (55-107) - 38
2. A’s (60-102) - 40
3. Pirates (62-100) - 40
4. Reds (62-100) - 39
5. Royals (65-97) - 40
6. Tigers (66-96) - 39
7. Rangers (68-94) - 40
8. Rockies (68-94) - 38
9. Marlins (69-93) - 39
10. Angels (73-89) - 40
11. D-backs (74-88) - 40
12. Cubs (74-88) - 38
13. Twins (78-84) - 39
14. Red Sox (78-84) - 40
15. White Sox (81-81) - 36
16. Giants (81-81) - 38
17. Orioles (83-79) - 38
18. Brewers (86-76) - 38
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Criznit
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You are probably right. I was just thinking that with Cardinals and Brewers kind of stagnant and Reds & Pirates having now shot that they would try to rebuild their team with a quick FA signing or two or three or more. I know they want Smyly back, a catcher, and looking at the Big 4 SS which would take 3 of their 4 openings. They will also need a reliever - backend type as they traded their top end relievers. They can also use a 1B/DH type to replace Reyes. And, most important, they have the money to do it in FA rather than Rule 5. So, do they take someone to fill the bottom end of their relievers to groom when they have more than enough of those types. They need the star reliever. But, in a tight market, the longer they don't sign anyone, the more likely they are not interested in competing at 100% this year which is strange for a big market team in a weak division.
sportscoach
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I guess I'm the type of person who just grabs people from the Rule 5 in OOTP if I have open roster spots just cause I like them and figure out how to get them on the roster later...
Though I do crazy stuff in the game too. Like when I rebuild, I literally trade or release everyone who isn't long term right away (unless they are a captain/leader) and then I fill the roster with rule 5 guys and short term stop gaps until my drafting and traded for talent is ready. I've accidentally won a world series with a 35 million dollar payroll since it was almost straight rookies haha
(Though the game actually predicted Kwan would do what he did in real life lol)
I am thinking thr rebuilding clubs have nothing to lose other than some money to try out these prospects. Im waiting for a random guy like Pries to get taken in the Rule 5... He's not ranked on any prospect site...
Hey SC, you wanted the official list ... it is without Viloria who can be taken if not added to the AAA roster (and is listed on Columbus website)
And, as we get to protect 38 in AAA -- here was the list that I started based on RR when you asked the first time
C - (4) +(2?) - Viloria, Plaz, Planchart, Ramirez, Amditis? and Rodriquez?
1B- (2) - Pries, Sanquintin
2B-(1?) - Bracho?
3B-(4)+(1?) - Frias, Rodriquez, Delgado, Fry, Scheeman(?)
SS - All are rostered
OF - (4)+(1?) Planez, J Rodriguez, Idrogo, Escabado, Holland(?)
So (14) + (5?) so far but not at our strength yet
SP (7) - Scott, Royalty, Hankins, Torres, S McCarthy, Sabrowski, W Vasquez
RP (17) - Miko, Misiaszek, Enright, Kelly, Broom, Pinto, Lingos, Daniels, Marman, Ponticelli, Benton, Jones, Hart, Labaut, Munoz, Morillo, Jerez
So based on counts 24 pitchers and 14 position with 5 question marks like Holland, Scheeman, Bracho, Amditis, Rodriquez ... there will be a few left off like Labuat, Hart and/or Jones (older A+/AA guys with mediocre years and keep younger guys like Morillo, Jerez, Munuz). But, at end of day, nothing will really hurt.
And, as we get to protect 38 in AAA -- here was the list that I started based on RR when you asked the first time
C - (4) +(2?) - Viloria, Plaz, Planchart, Ramirez, Amditis? and Rodriquez?
1B- (2) - Pries, Sanquintin
2B-(1?) - Bracho?
3B-(4)+(1?) - Frias, Rodriquez, Delgado, Fry, Scheeman(?)
SS - All are rostered
OF - (4)+(1?) Planez, J Rodriguez, Idrogo, Escabado, Holland(?)
So (14) + (5?) so far but not at our strength yet
SP (7) - Scott, Royalty, Hankins, Torres, S McCarthy, Sabrowski, W Vasquez
RP (17) - Miko, Misiaszek, Enright, Kelly, Broom, Pinto, Lingos, Daniels, Marman, Ponticelli, Benton, Jones, Hart, Labaut, Munoz, Morillo, Jerez
So based on counts 24 pitchers and 14 position with 5 question marks like Holland, Scheeman, Bracho, Amditis, Rodriquez ... there will be a few left off like Labuat, Hart and/or Jones (older A+/AA guys with mediocre years and keep younger guys like Morillo, Jerez, Munuz). But, at end of day, nothing will really hurt.
Here is a Rule 5 list from Reds website (using MLB Pipeline and BA), has Enright and Kelly as 2 of the 10 relief pitchers ...
www.redsminorleagues.com
Just kind of surprised these 2 are getting some run over Battenfield and/or Hankins as his top 10 pitchers for Reds. But, I won't be that mad at losing either of these 2 as after this year, they were probably getting waived/traded for bag of balls anyways as I can count 20 pitchers for next year's rule 5
Starting pitching (10)- 1 of 3 of Bieber, Civale, Plesac (rest traded), McK, Quant, Morris, Curry, Cantillo, Allen, Espino, Burns, Hankins
Relievers (8)- Clase, Stephan, Karinchak, Hentges, Morgan, Santos, Sandlin, Herrin
That is 18 with choices for 19,20 between Pilkington, Gaddis, Battenfield, Hickman, Smith, Wolf, Miko, Mis, Kelly Enright and other sleepers like Vilavlobos....and possibly no trade of Civale. So, we may lose one of Kelly, Enright, Miko or Misiaszek but if one doesn't really stand out as a must have 19th/20th guy for 2023, does it really matter? Their time was going to be the 8th guy in pen for injury just to mop up innings in losses. And once 2024 is going then we have our 2024 Rule 4 wave taking over those slots like Bibee, Williams and Nikhazy .... So it is all roster management.
Kevin Kelly
Cleveland’s farm system is deep and that led to Kevin Kelly being left unprotected despite posting a 2.04 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022. The 24-year-old threw 57.1 innings and allowed just one home run, walked 22, and he struck out 75 batters during the season. He posted a 60% ground ball rate and has been over 50% at every stop of his minor league career.
His 2-seamer works in the low 90’s and gets plenty of ground balls and shows plenty of movement. He also has a breaking ball in the upper 70’s. The stuff is more solid than outstanding, but he gets a ton of ground balls, keeps the ball in the park, throws a lot of strikes, and he’s shown he can be very successful in the upper levels of the minor leagues.
Nic Enright
A 20th round pick by Cleveland out of Virginia Tech in 2019, Nic Enright saw action as both a starter and reliever in his time in college, but he’s made just one start as a professional out of his 97 appearances. Since being drafted the right-handed reliever has a 2.80 ERA in 141.2 innings, has allowed just 100 hits, walked 35 batters, and he’s picked up 201 strikeouts. The numbers have been outstanding. This past season mirrored much of his career as he posted a 2.88 ERA while splitting time in Double-A Akron and Triple-A Columbus (where he performed better than he did in Double-A).
There’s not big velocity for Enright, who throws his fastball in the low 90’s but it’s got good movement to it. He also has an above-average slider that works in the low 80’s. He’s got excellent control and he misses tons of bats. His numbers have been outstanding. The one thing working against him, particulary from a standpoint of the Reds being interested in selecting him, is that he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher. Over the last two seasons his ground ball rate has been 26%. Only four pitchers were that low in the big leagues last season among the 409 pitchers that threw at least 40 innings. The ERA’s for those four pitchers were 2.25, 2.54, 3.06, and 5.36 – so you can have plenty of success by giving up tons of fly balls, but in Cincinnati it’s always going to be a concern until you prove you can do that while also keeping the ball out of the stands.
Cincinnati Reds Rule 5 Options: The Pitchers - redsminorleagues.com
The Cincinnati Reds need more pitching and the Rule 5 draft could provide some of that. There's a lot of upside out there to be looked at.
www.redsminorleagues.com
Just kind of surprised these 2 are getting some run over Battenfield and/or Hankins as his top 10 pitchers for Reds. But, I won't be that mad at losing either of these 2 as after this year, they were probably getting waived/traded for bag of balls anyways as I can count 20 pitchers for next year's rule 5
Starting pitching (10)- 1 of 3 of Bieber, Civale, Plesac (rest traded), McK, Quant, Morris, Curry, Cantillo, Allen, Espino, Burns, Hankins
Relievers (8)- Clase, Stephan, Karinchak, Hentges, Morgan, Santos, Sandlin, Herrin
That is 18 with choices for 19,20 between Pilkington, Gaddis, Battenfield, Hickman, Smith, Wolf, Miko, Mis, Kelly Enright and other sleepers like Vilavlobos....and possibly no trade of Civale. So, we may lose one of Kelly, Enright, Miko or Misiaszek but if one doesn't really stand out as a must have 19th/20th guy for 2023, does it really matter? Their time was going to be the 8th guy in pen for injury just to mop up innings in losses. And once 2024 is going then we have our 2024 Rule 4 wave taking over those slots like Bibee, Williams and Nikhazy .... So it is all roster management.
Kevin Kelly
Cleveland’s farm system is deep and that led to Kevin Kelly being left unprotected despite posting a 2.04 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022. The 24-year-old threw 57.1 innings and allowed just one home run, walked 22, and he struck out 75 batters during the season. He posted a 60% ground ball rate and has been over 50% at every stop of his minor league career.
His 2-seamer works in the low 90’s and gets plenty of ground balls and shows plenty of movement. He also has a breaking ball in the upper 70’s. The stuff is more solid than outstanding, but he gets a ton of ground balls, keeps the ball in the park, throws a lot of strikes, and he’s shown he can be very successful in the upper levels of the minor leagues.
Nic Enright
A 20th round pick by Cleveland out of Virginia Tech in 2019, Nic Enright saw action as both a starter and reliever in his time in college, but he’s made just one start as a professional out of his 97 appearances. Since being drafted the right-handed reliever has a 2.80 ERA in 141.2 innings, has allowed just 100 hits, walked 35 batters, and he’s picked up 201 strikeouts. The numbers have been outstanding. This past season mirrored much of his career as he posted a 2.88 ERA while splitting time in Double-A Akron and Triple-A Columbus (where he performed better than he did in Double-A).
There’s not big velocity for Enright, who throws his fastball in the low 90’s but it’s got good movement to it. He also has an above-average slider that works in the low 80’s. He’s got excellent control and he misses tons of bats. His numbers have been outstanding. The one thing working against him, particulary from a standpoint of the Reds being interested in selecting him, is that he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher. Over the last two seasons his ground ball rate has been 26%. Only four pitchers were that low in the big leagues last season among the 409 pitchers that threw at least 40 innings. The ERA’s for those four pitchers were 2.25, 2.54, 3.06, and 5.36 – so you can have plenty of success by giving up tons of fly balls, but in Cincinnati it’s always going to be a concern until you prove you can do that while also keeping the ball out of the stands.
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MadThinker88
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IIRC- the deadline for the AAA list was the same as the deadline for the MLB 40 man. Unless the rules have changed, ANY milb free agent signed would still be eligible for the draft. That was what happened to Martin Cervenka back in 2017 and a pitcher (Jon Duplantir if IIRC) a few years ago.Hey SC, you wanted the official list ... it is without Viloria who can be taken if not added to the AAA roster (and is listed on Columbus website)
And, as we get to protect 38 in AAA -- here was the list that I started based on RR when you asked the first time
C - (4) +(2?) - Viloria, Plaz, Planchart, Ramirez, Amditis? and Rodriquez?
1B- (2) - Pries, Sanquintin
2B-(1?) - Bracho?
3B-(4)+(1?) - Frias, Rodriquez, Delgado, Fry, Scheeman(?)
SS - All are rostered
OF - (4)+(1?) Planez, J Rodriguez, Idrogo, Escabado, Holland(?)
So (14) + (5?) so far but not at our strength yet
SP (7) - Scott, Royalty, Hankins, Torres, S McCarthy, Sabrowski, W Vasquez
RP (17) - Miko, Misiaszek, Enright, Kelly, Broom, Pinto, Lingos, Daniels, Marman, Ponticelli, Benton, Jones, Hart, Labaut, Munoz, Morillo, Jerez
So based on counts 24 pitchers and 14 position with 5 question marks like Holland, Scheeman, Bracho, Amditis, Rodriquez ... there will be a few left off like Labuat, Hart and/or Jones (older A+/AA guys with mediocre years and keep younger guys like Morillo, Jerez, Munuz). But, at end of day, nothing will really hurt.
Thanks ... then why sign so early??? Just wait 4-days, unless they know no one wants him???
MadThinker88
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It’s balanced by the player grabbing a known spot while it is available & the team knowing what it has barring a rule 5 selection.
I am not suggesting multiple milb free agents get drafted each year, only that it has happened before.
I don't think that's accurate. Viloria is a FA, and like MLB FA, he can be signed onto a 40 roster, so I guess all what's needed was an open spot on the 38 protection roster. He can be selected in the MLB phase, yes, but not the AAA phase.
What happened to Cervenka was that he was left off the 38 roster, because he was just a random MiLB FA signing. Viloria got a NRI, that should be different. Otherwise Viloria would be a no brainer to get selected in AAA R5. You can't just draft MiLB FA in that phase, otherwise Ray Burgos, D. MacKinnon and many others wouldn't be able to choose where they'll land. Makes no sense
Makes sense (as long as Guardians had a few spaces on AAA roster of 38 eligible to protect). Did look at Cervenka -- when signed by Giants as a MiLB FA, he was assigned specifically that day to the AA roster (not AAA). Could be nothing but noticed Santos was signed as a NRI late on Dec 1 (so officially Dec 2) and AAA draft last year was Dec 8th. If not on 38-man AAA roster, he could (and probably would) have been selected by someone else - as we lost Clemmers ... who would you rather have from us?