For those interested, I am assuming that one of our pitchers (Battenfield, Hankins, Miko or Misa) are the only possible selection this year. As I said, hitters are the most notable players available (as GMs know pitchers are the most likely selection). Yet, we chose Brito over a Battenfield, so they know more than me, obviously.
Thus, to avoid one of our pitchers being selected, there needs to be other more enticing pitchers. There are number of them like Dodgers Duran or Padres' Iriarte but they are in A ball and not likely to be selected and thus unprotected. Here is a list of AA/AAA type pitchers that are similar to ours. Yet, as each GM looks for different types of selections, it is hard to say that Battenfield won't be picked as he is probably 4-8th of the most productive AAA pitcher left unprotected. Sorry for cut and past approach, just looking for what people are saying.
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Cleveland – Per SI, “Battenfield throws four pitches including a fastball that has good vertical movement that in 2021 sat 92-94 but was sitting at 90-93 in 2022. In 2021 his fastball was touching 97 mph but was topping out around 94-95 this year. His best secondary pitch is a cutter that grades above average. Battenfield also throws a curveball and changeup that are average pitches.
His command-and-control grade out above average as he spots his pitches especially his fastball where he wants in the zone. However, he saw his BB/9 inning rate jump from 1.66 in 2021 to 3.34 this season. Battenfield utilizes all of his pitches well and they work well together keeping hitters guessing and off balance.”
https://www.si.com/mlb/guardians/prospects/cleveland-guardians-2022-mlb-rule-5-draft-preview
Boston – Per Masslive, “Ward is the most notable omission. The 2018 fifth-round draft pick out of Central Florida emerged as one of top pitching prospects in the Red Sox organization before
undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2021. He posted a 2.14 ERA in 25 starts (13 at Greenville and 12 at Salem) in 2019. He returned during the 2022 season and posted a 2.43 ERA (33 ⅓ innings, nine earned runs) in seven starts for Portland. He then made four appearances (three starts) in the Arizona Fall League, recording a 2.84 ERA (12 ⅔ innings, four runs).
Politi along with Ward is a strong candidate to be selected in the Rule 5 Draft. The 26-year-old righty recorded a 2.34 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 48 relief outings and two starts (69 ⅓ innings) between Portland and Worcester in 2022. He held opponents to a .186 batting average. He struck out 83 and walked 22.
Politi’s fastball was in the 94-97 mph range this past season. He has touched 98 mph. He also throws a cutter and curveball.”
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/202...d-unprotected-for-decembers-rule-5-draft.html
Oakland - “Peluse’s 95-98 mph fastball is accompanied by a strong slider that has flashed plus at times and a solid changeup that continues to improve, giving him a good three-pitch mix to work with. Command is also a strength, evidenced by his low walk numbers that date back to his college days at Wake Forest.
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MLB.com Top Prospects He struggled though in AA giving up 133 hits in 118 innings as a starter. Did a lot better in Arizona.
TJ SIkkema – “The fastball is where the variations in arm slot come into play the most, will work in 88-92 mph range with plus arm side life from lower 3/4 slot, will raise up to overhand slot at times and can work in more 92-95 mph range, does a nice job mixing and matching and keeping hitters off balance as a result, variations should play both in starting and bullpen role.” –
Mike Kinsela He has different arm angles and his splits this year makes him LOOGY potential .101/.374 (BA/OPS). But more importantly, Royals who are one of team primed to pick, decided to leave him off versus using room to protect this grade of prospect.
Per MLB.Com (toughest decision article -- the pitchers left unprotected)
Decisions, decisions, decisions. They were made fast and furiously by Major League front offices Tuesday, when organizations had to add eligible players to their 40-man roster or else leave them exposed to the Rule 5 Draft, to be held on Dec. 7 in San Diego. We organized each club’s Rule
www.mlb.com
Braves: Indigo Diaz, RHP (No. 28)
After a breakout in 2021 that saw him reach Double-A and absolutely dominate as a short reliever, Diaz looked like a sure-fire roster add following this season. He returned to Mississippi, and while he still missed bats (11.4 K/9), his command went south (5.6 BB/9). He was still tough to hit (.167 BAA), but the lack of strike-throwing could limit him from pitching in high-leverage situations, though the Braves know full well that power-armed relievers with upper-level success are often Rule 5 targets.
Phillies: McKinley Moore, RHP (No. 24)
Moore is big (6-foot-6) and throws really hard (up to 98 mph) with a solid slider that misses bats (12.9 K/9 in 2022, in line with his career rate). He doesn’t always know where it’s going (4.7 BB/9 last season) and his command in the strike zone has led him to be more hittable than he should be at times. Could he figure things out and help a big league bullpen in 2023? Stuff-wise, sure, and that’s the question the Phillies have to answer in making a roster decision here.
Pirates: Tahnaj Thomas, RHP (No. 28)
A move to the bullpen in 2022 led to a lot more success for Thomas, as he finished his first year in Double-A with a 3.02 ERA and 9.2 K/9, and he featured a live fastball that has touched triple-digits in the past. He really struggled with the strike zone in the AFL, however, though he was still consistently in the 95-97 mph range, and he needs to refine his secondary stuff.
D-backs: Conor Grammes, RHP (No. 28)
Grammes underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2021, returned this season and struck out 33 of the 89 High-A batters he faced on the strength of his mid-90s fastball and two above-average breaking pitches. He also walked 13 and allowed 17 earned runs in his 18 innings with Hillsboro. Any results are typically gravy in a year back from TJ, but a little tighter command would have helped Grammes’ case significantly. With his premium stuff, he’d be a perfect Rule 5 pick for a club looking to bulk up its bullpen, and that might be his saving grace.
Padres: Jairo Iriarte, RHP (No. 10)
Top 10 prospects typically go protected from the Rule 5 Draft, but Iriarte is a bit of a different case. For starters, he has no experience above Single-A ball, making a jump to the Majors an extreme question mark. He also didn’t exactly dominate even that level with a 5.12 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 109 strikeouts in 91 1/3 innings at Lake Elsinore. The 20-year-old right-hander’s above-average fastball and plus changeup could be worth a Rule 5 look, but the whole package might be too much of a long-term project for the Padres to use on a 40-man spot right now.
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Others -- Atlanta Victor Vodnik – Dominated in 7 games in AA (18k per 9 but more pedestrian in AAA). Per FG – “Vodnik remains a mid-90s relief prospect with a good changeup. He was sitting 94-96 mph during the 2021 regular season and was often sustaining 95-97 (mostly 97s) during the 2021 Fall League, though his arm strength has been down about a tick so far this season. His slider’s velocity was greater (as hard as 90-91) during that Fall League stint than during the 2021 regular season (per our sourced pitch data, it sat 83) and that has continued to some degree this year, as Vodnik’s slider has averaged 86 mph, though it remains a distant third pitch. His fastball’s cut and carry at the top of the zone makes it a bat-missing weapon up there and should spearhead a consistent on-roster middle relief profile.”
Boston- Wikelman Gonzalez – Per FG (#4 prospect) and “Gonzalez zoomed up this list in July 2021 with an outstanding showing in the Florida Complex League that left scouts buzzing about both the depth and maturity of his arsenal. While he’s a bit on the small side, Gonzalez is an electric athlete with a smooth delivery and an exceptionally quick arm that produces 93-95 mph fastballs that touch 98, with scouts projecting for even more as his frame continues to fill out. “ But is only at A+ ball (but did well)
Detroit – Austin Bergner – had a good AA season with .195 BA and struggled a bit in AAA though. Per MLB - Bergner has a nice, easy delivery out of his 6-foot-5 frame. He pitches off a fastball that approaches the mid-90s. As a reliever, he could pair that with a fading changeup and mix in a slow curveball.
Detroit – Elvis Alvarado – Moved up through 3 level to AA. Per MLB, “Alvarado is a hard-thrower of the type that has become a rarity in the Tigers system these days. He can fire the fastball in at 96-97 mph, touching 99, with more sink than a traditional four-seamer, and he isn’t afraid of sticking with the heater when he’s locating it, which is fairly often. The power doesn’t stop there either. He’ll mix in a low-90s slider -- yes, low-90s -- but the velocity is the only thing that pops on the breaker.”
Dodgers – Carlos Duran – Like many pitchers with great stuff, the have not made it out of A+. Per MLB – “Right-handers can't seem to pick up Duran's slider, which parks in the mid-80s and features horizontal sweep as well as two-plane break. He can run a four-seam fastball up to 98 mph but it lacks life and gets hit when he doesn't command it, so he's more effective with a two-seam sinker that sits at 92-95.”
Twins – Steven Cruz – He stuggled a bit at AA but had his moments too. Per MLB – “The 6-foot-7 Cruz is all about power. The right-hander throws his fastball in the 95-101 mph range and it’s a pitch that does have some riding life to it. He backs up the elite heater with a hard slider, thrown around 89 mph, a potential out pitch that can miss a lot of bats.”
Seattle – Kuhn – Had a .203 BAA in AA this year but 2:1 S:W ratio. Per MLB – “Kuhn is a come-right-after-you, pure power two-pitch type of right-hander. He’s been up to 99 mph with his fastball this year, typically sitting in the 95-96 mph range, and it has good run and sink on it, coming from his strong, stocky frame. He complements it with a hard, short slider, typically in the upper-80s, that flashes above average and can be a true out pitch. “
