2020-2021 Cavs Season General Discussion

[Comeback kid]

I'm really happy that the Cavs again look like a competent team, but winning now is really bad. Is there a middle ground?

The draft is just too good. We might see teams tanking sooner rather than later. NOP, Kings, etc.. come to mind.

No

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

No

They should be competitive and close with every team, but winning ultimately and not ending in the top 5 will be very bad.

 

[BodegaBayCav]

Tanking is really a thing of the past in the NBA. If you check the table below, only the bottom two teams are most likely to get a top 4 pick, and that isn't even guaranteed. There is a 48% chance the worst team gets the fifth pick.
I am hoping the Cavs make the play in tournament with the 10th best record and end up in the playoffs. And then luck out in the lottery.

The following table lists the chance for each seed to get specific picks, beginning with the 2019 draft, if there were no ties.

Seed	Chances	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th	12th	13th	14th
1​	140	14.00%	13.42%	12.75%	11.97%	47.86%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2​	140	14.00%	13.42%	12.75%	11.97%	27.84%	20.02%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3​	140	14.00%	13.42%	12.75%	11.97%	14.84%	26.00%	7.02%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4​	125	12.50%	12.23%	11.89%	11.46%	7.24%	25.74%	16.74%	2.19%	-	-	-	-	-	-
5​	105	10.50%	10.54%	10.56%	10.53%	2.22%	19.61%	26.74%	8.68%	0.62%	-	-	-	-	-
6​	90	9.00%	9.20%	9.41%	9.62%	-	8.62%	29.77%	20.55%	3.68%	0.15%	-	-	-	-
7​	75	7.50%	7.80%	8.14%	8.52%	-	-	19.72%	34.11%	12.88%	1.30%	0.03%	-	-	-
8​	60	6.00%	6.34%	6.74%	7.22%	-	-	-	34.47%	32.10%	6.75%	0.38%	<0.01%	-	-
9​	45	4.50%	4.83%	5.23%	5.71%	-	-	-	-	50.72%	25.90%	3.01%	0.09%	<0.01%	-
10​	30	3.00%	3.27%	3.60%	4.01%	-	-	-	-	-	65.90%	18.99%	1.20%	0.02%	<0.01%
11​	20	2.00%	2.20%	2.45%	2.76%	-	-	-	-	-	-	77.59%	12.60%	0.40%	<0.01%
12​	15	1.50%	1.66%	1.86%	2.10%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	86.10%	6.70%	0.07%
13​	10	1.00%	1.11%	1.25%	1.43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	92.88%	2.34%
14​	5	0.50%	0.56%	0.63%	0.72%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	97.59%

 

[weepinwillow]

They should be competitive and close with every team, but winning ultimately and not ending in the top 5 will be very bad.

I don't agree.
Winning cures all, and even if you end up with a bottom 3 lottery ticket, you will likely end up with a 5-7 pick. Winning sets good habits, allows coaches to coach, GM's to make smart decisions.
Tanking is bad for everyone. The fans, the coaches, the GM, the players.
The Cavs should strive to put the best basketball team they can muster today on the floor, without mortgaging their future (and that's the GM's job, to have the long vision). Let the chips fall where they may. Be like the Pacers or Raptors, or Bucks or Jazz or Nuggets. It's not that you won't have a season where you bottom out, but I wouldn't play for bottoming out.
Again, if your scouting department and player development department are worth two shits you will always find a good player in the draft regardless of draft spot. Even franchise changing guys.

 

[weepinwillow]

Tanking is really a thing of the past in the NBA. If you check the table below, only the bottom two teams are most likely to get a top 4 pick, and that isn't even guaranteed. There is a 48% chance the worst team gets the fifth pick.
I am hoping the Cavs make the play inn tournament with the 10th best record and end up in the playoffs. And then luck out in the lottery.

The following table lists the chance for each seed to get specific picks, beginning with the 2019 draft, if there were no ties.

Seed	Chances	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th	12th	13th	14th
1​	140	14.00%	13.42%	12.75%	11.97%	47.86%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2​	140	14.00%	13.42%	12.75%	11.97%	27.84%	20.02%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3​	140	14.00%	13.42%	12.75%	11.97%	14.84%	26.00%	7.02%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4​	125	12.50%	12.23%	11.89%	11.46%	7.24%	25.74%	16.74%	2.19%	-	-	-	-	-	-
5​	105	10.50%	10.54%	10.56%	10.53%	2.22%	19.61%	26.74%	8.68%	0.62%	-	-	-	-	-
6​	90	9.00%	9.20%	9.41%	9.62%	-	8.62%	29.77%	20.55%	3.68%	0.15%	-	-	-	-
7​	75	7.50%	7.80%	8.14%	8.52%	-	-	19.72%	34.11%	12.88%	1.30%	0.03%	-	-	-
8​	60	6.00%	6.34%	6.74%	7.22%	-	-	-	34.47%	32.10%	6.75%	0.38%	<0.01%	-	-
9​	45	4.50%	4.83%	5.23%	5.71%	-	-	-	-	50.72%	25.90%	3.01%	0.09%	<0.01%	-
10​	30	3.00%	3.27%	3.60%	4.01%	-	-	-	-	-	65.90%	18.99%	1.20%	0.02%	<0.01%
11​	20	2.00%	2.20%	2.45%	2.76%	-	-	-	-	-	-	77.59%	12.60%	0.40%	<0.01%
12​	15	1.50%	1.66%	1.86%	2.10%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	86.10%	6.70%	0.07%
13​	10	1.00%	1.11%	1.25%	1.43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	92.88%	2.34%
14​	5	0.50%	0.56%	0.63%	0.72%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	97.59%

This is a good point, the experience you get your players from winning a playoff game and competing in a series is one of the best player development tools in your toolbox. If you are a team who's trying to stress "culture" then you need to stress winning from all spots in the org.

 

[Benway]

Tanking does not get you More picks, it potentially makes your pick earlier.
A great draft makes All picks "better".

(If tanking could get a team Additional picks, I'd tank without thinking twice.)

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Tanking is really a thing of the past in the NBA. If you check the table below, only the bottom two teams are most likely to get a top 4 pick, and that isn't even guaranteed. There is a 48% chance the worst team gets the fifth pick.
I am hoping the Cavs make the play inn tournament with the 10th best record and end up in the playoffs. And then luck out in the lottery.

The following table lists the chance for each seed to get specific picks, beginning with the 2019 draft, if there were no ties.

Seed	Chances	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th	12th	13th	14th
1​	140	14.00%	13.42%	12.75%	11.97%	47.86%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2​	140	14.00%	13.42%	12.75%	11.97%	27.84%	20.02%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3​	140	14.00%	13.42%	12.75%	11.97%	14.84%	26.00%	7.02%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4​	125	12.50%	12.23%	11.89%	11.46%	7.24%	25.74%	16.74%	2.19%	-	-	-	-	-	-
5​	105	10.50%	10.54%	10.56%	10.53%	2.22%	19.61%	26.74%	8.68%	0.62%	-	-	-	-	-
6​	90	9.00%	9.20%	9.41%	9.62%	-	8.62%	29.77%	20.55%	3.68%	0.15%	-	-	-	-
7​	75	7.50%	7.80%	8.14%	8.52%	-	-	19.72%	34.11%	12.88%	1.30%	0.03%	-	-	-
8​	60	6.00%	6.34%	6.74%	7.22%	-	-	-	34.47%	32.10%	6.75%	0.38%	<0.01%	-	-
9​	45	4.50%	4.83%	5.23%	5.71%	-	-	-	-	50.72%	25.90%	3.01%	0.09%	<0.01%	-
10​	30	3.00%	3.27%	3.60%	4.01%	-	-	-	-	-	65.90%	18.99%	1.20%	0.02%	<0.01%
11​	20	2.00%	2.20%	2.45%	2.76%	-	-	-	-	-	-	77.59%	12.60%	0.40%	<0.01%
12​	15	1.50%	1.66%	1.86%	2.10%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	86.10%	6.70%	0.07%
13​	10	1.00%	1.11%	1.25%	1.43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	92.88%	2.34%
14​	5	0.50%	0.56%	0.63%	0.72%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	97.59%

Disastrous.

This is not your typical draft. That is a deep, deep draft that has high-end prospects that are very close to each other. We can't let that opportunity slip.

I would be forced to agree if it were a typical draft, but it's not.

 

[weepinwillow]

Disastrous.

This is not your typical draft. That is a deep, deep draft that has high-end prospects that are very close to each other. We can't let that opportunity slip.

I would be forced to agree if it were a typical draft, but it's not.

Deep drafts come and go. Good players slide and rise on boards, teams pass on Luca Doncic for Marvin Bagley and DeAndre Ayton, and then another team trades him for Trae Young and Cam Reddish, or pass on Steph Curry twice for different PG's. or take Anthony Bennett in the 2nd round (what? they picked him where?? WTF!!!?!?!?!)

 

[LeeBuckeye]

Disastrous.

This is not your typical draft. That is a deep, deep draft that has high-end prospects that are very close to each other. We can't let that opportunity slip.

I would be forced to agree if it were a typical draft, but it's not.

What else could they do when their four highest salaried players are not playing and they're giving all of the minutes to the young kids lol.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

What else could they do when their four highest salaried players are not playing and they're giving all of the minutes to the young kids lol.

Dunno, but they are winning tonight, right?

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Tanking is really a thing of the past in the NBA. If you check the table below, only the bottom two teams are most likely to get a top 4 pick, and that isn't even guaranteed. There is a 48% chance the worst team gets the fifth pick.
I am hoping the Cavs make the play inn tournament with the 10th best record and end up in the playoffs. And then luck out in the lottery.

The following table lists the chance for each seed to get specific picks, beginning with the 2019 draft, if there were no ties.

Seed	Chances	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th	12th	13th	14th
1​	140	14.00%	13.42%	12.75%	11.97%	47.86%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2​	140	14.00%	13.42%	12.75%	11.97%	27.84%	20.02%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3​	140	14.00%	13.42%	12.75%	11.97%	14.84%	26.00%	7.02%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4​	125	12.50%	12.23%	11.89%	11.46%	7.24%	25.74%	16.74%	2.19%	-	-	-	-	-	-
5​	105	10.50%	10.54%	10.56%	10.53%	2.22%	19.61%	26.74%	8.68%	0.62%	-	-	-	-	-
6​	90	9.00%	9.20%	9.41%	9.62%	-	8.62%	29.77%	20.55%	3.68%	0.15%	-	-	-	-
7​	75	7.50%	7.80%	8.14%	8.52%	-	-	19.72%	34.11%	12.88%	1.30%	0.03%	-	-	-
8​	60	6.00%	6.34%	6.74%	7.22%	-	-	-	34.47%	32.10%	6.75%	0.38%	<0.01%	-	-
9​	45	4.50%	4.83%	5.23%	5.71%	-	-	-	-	50.72%	25.90%	3.01%	0.09%	<0.01%	-
10​	30	3.00%	3.27%	3.60%	4.01%	-	-	-	-	-	65.90%	18.99%	1.20%	0.02%	<0.01%
11​	20	2.00%	2.20%	2.45%	2.76%	-	-	-	-	-	-	77.59%	12.60%	0.40%	<0.01%
12​	15	1.50%	1.66%	1.86%	2.10%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	86.10%	6.70%	0.07%
13​	10	1.00%	1.11%	1.25%	1.43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	92.88%	2.34%
14​	5	0.50%	0.56%	0.63%	0.72%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	97.59%

Yeah, it's a total crapshoot. The three worst records each have LESS than a 1 in 7 chance to get the top pick. The worst record is almost 50-50 between getting the 5th pick and one of the top four.

The whole idea of tanking is ridiculous. The only thing to do is develop your core players as much as possible, hope they improve tremendously, and then hope to get lucky.

 

[narbar32]

I don't agree.
Winning cures all, and even if you end up with a bottom 3 lottery ticket, you will likely end up with a 5-7 pick. Winning sets good habits, allows coaches to coach, GM's to make smart decisions.
Tanking is bad for everyone. The fans, the coaches, the GM, the players.
The Cavs should strive to put the best basketball team they can muster today on the floor, without mortgaging their future (and that's the GM's job, to have the long vision). Let the chips fall where they may. Be like the Pacers or Raptors, or Bucks or Jazz or Nuggets. It's not that you won't have a season where you bottom out, but I wouldn't play for bottoming out.
Again, if your scouting department and player development department are worth two shits you will always find a good player in the draft regardless of draft spot. Even franchise changing guys.

Hoping for losses and hoping for tanking are two different things, though.

I think it's probably pretty bad for team and player development when the guys can tell that the decisions by their coaches and front office are being made in the name of intentionally losing games, but I also don't think that a few extra wins that could have been competitive losses are so good for development that they trump the benefit of better lottery odds. Not in a draft like this and especially not with a roster as flawed as this one, with an awkwardly short starting backcourt and without a single young prospect that realistically projects as a true star in this league. And I don't care if the lottery odds are flatter now--better odds are better odds and higher picks mean objectively more control over trusting your evaluations and picking YOUR guy.

I hope the team continues to fight. I hope there's no intentional tanking. But as a fan, I can't deny that my excitement over any wins is decidedly tempered as I think about the talent at the top of this draft. I personally think Mobley and Green are potential franchise-altering talents, and they're not the only ones up there in the top 5 or so. Picking 8 in this draft will fucking break me.

 

[LeeBuckeye]

Dunno, but they are winning tonight, right?

Probably since the Rockets are 0-11 since Christian Wood went down. The Cavs also have the sixth easiest schedule remaining based on strength of schedule according to Tankathon.

I'm glad teams are slowly getting away from this mentality of Championship or bust. The dreaded "treadmill team" tag is what led to this and Silver attempting to fix that with the new lottery odds while the play in tournament keeps the 9th and 10th seeds interested. Also from a viewership side, I can actually enjoy watching regular season NBA games without the Cavs being involved. Multiple teams have drafted franchise players only to watch them fold under the rings or bust narrative and request trades because at the end of the day, they still have to beat out LeBron, Kawhi or KD for a title. Having a cohesive team within a structured organization that puts on an enjoyable product and wins games should be the goal. The rest is just luck or requires a generational talent but then again that's the same thing.

 

[Derek]

Probably since the Rockets are 0-11 since Christian Wood went down. The Cavs also have the sixth easiest schedule remaining based on strength of schedule according to Tankathon.

I'm glad teams are slowly getting away from this mentality of Championship or bust. The dreaded "treadmill team" tag is what led to this and Silver attempting to fix that with the new lottery odds while the play in tournament keeps the 9th and 10th seeds interested. Also from a viewership side, I can actually enjoy watching regular season NBA games without the Cavs being involved. Multiple teams have drafted franchise players only to watch them fold under the rings or bust narrative and request trades because at the end of the day, they still have to beat out LeBron, Kawhi or KD for a title. Having a cohesive team within a structured organization that puts on an enjoyable product and wins games should be the goal. The rest is just luck or requires a generational talent but then again that's the same thing.

If the treadmill means I get to see the Cavs win 15-25 more games than they have been, then sign me up.

 

[Hydroponic3385]

I still desperately want a championship for the Browns, Indians.

The Cavs at least ended our 50+ year drought with a championship in 2016. Because of that, I'm a-ok with becoming a "treadmill team" if it means soon becoming a pesky 7/8/9 seed that no one wants to face in the 1st round, and peaking as a 4/5 seed who can win a playoff series and maybe luck into another series win after that if all ends well.

I'd LOVE another Cavs championship in the next decade or two. But I also know how absurdly lucky we had to be to make that happen once, and I also know what it's like for them to be a perennially awful team year after year. So that's why I'm fine with being something like the Pacers or Jazz of the last couple decades for a while. At least it means seeing decent quality basketball more often than not, rather than rooting for draft luck year after year.