Tanking is really a thing of the past in the NBA. If you check the table below, only the bottom two teams are most likely to get a top 4 pick, and that isn't even guaranteed. There is a 48% chance the worst team gets the fifth pick.
I am hoping the Cavs make the play inn tournament with the 10th
best record and end up in the playoffs. And then luck out in the lottery.
The following table lists the chance for each seed to get specific picks, beginning with the 2019 draft, if there were no ties.
Seed | Chances | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | 11th | 12th | 13th | 14th |
---|
1 | 140 | 14.00% | 13.42% | 12.75% | 11.97% | 47.86% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
2 | 140 | 14.00% | 13.42% | 12.75% | 11.97% | 27.84% | 20.02% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
3 | 140 | 14.00% | 13.42% | 12.75% | 11.97% | 14.84% | 26.00% | 7.02% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
4 | 125 | 12.50% | 12.23% | 11.89% | 11.46% | 7.24% | 25.74% | 16.74% | 2.19% | - | - | - | - | - | - |
5 | 105 | 10.50% | 10.54% | 10.56% | 10.53% | 2.22% | 19.61% | 26.74% | 8.68% | 0.62% | - | - | - | - | - |
6 | 90 | 9.00% | 9.20% | 9.41% | 9.62% | - | 8.62% | 29.77% | 20.55% | 3.68% | 0.15% | - | - | - | - |
7 | 75 | 7.50% | 7.80% | 8.14% | 8.52% | - | - | 19.72% | 34.11% | 12.88% | 1.30% | 0.03% | - | - | - |
8 | 60 | 6.00% | 6.34% | 6.74% | 7.22% | - | - | - | 34.47% | 32.10% | 6.75% | 0.38% | <0.01% | - | - |
9 | 45 | 4.50% | 4.83% | 5.23% | 5.71% | - | - | - | - | 50.72% | 25.90% | 3.01% | 0.09% | <0.01% | - |
10 | 30 | 3.00% | 3.27% | 3.60% | 4.01% | - | - | - | - | - | 65.90% | 18.99% | 1.20% | 0.02% | <0.01% |
11 | 20 | 2.00% | 2.20% | 2.45% | 2.76% | - | - | - | - | - | - | 77.59% | 12.60% | 0.40% | <0.01% |
12 | 15 | 1.50% | 1.66% | 1.86% | 2.10% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 86.10% | 6.70% | 0.07% |
13 | 10 | 1.00% | 1.11% | 1.25% | 1.43% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 92.88% | 2.34% |
14 | 5 | 0.50% | 0.56% | 0.63% | 0.72% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 97.59% |