23 Offseason GM Thread

[CDAV45]

How about an Gabriel Arias for Luis Campusano, one for one deal?..

This is one I'd probably pass on, but admittedly could come to regret it soon. I feel strongly about Arias having a strong 23 season and I wish Rosario wasn't in the way.

 

[sportscoach]

Dodgers Notes: Valenzuela, Urias, Vargas, Muncy

Fernandomania will run wild again at Dodger Stadium this summer, as the Dodgers officially announced that Fernando Valenzuela's number #34 …

www.mlbtraderumors.com

I am going to go about the article about Vargas... Dodgers I guess are penciling him in at 2B and the GM even stated he is one of the fastest guys on the Dodgers team now... He is way faster physically than the scouts put him at and the baseball savant sprint speed I stated months ago actually backs up the Dodgers GM words...

 

[macbdog]

How about an Gabriel Arias for Luis Campusano, one for one deal?..

You do this flip so fast that Arias develops vertigo. I just don't see San Diego being down with it. They unloaded Arias for a raisin.

 

[CDAV45]

Dodgers Notes: Valenzuela, Urias, Vargas, Muncy

Fernandomania will run wild again at Dodger Stadium this summer, as the Dodgers officially announced that Fernando Valenzuela's number #34 …

www.mlbtraderumors.com

I am going to go about the article about Vargas... Dodgers I guess are penciling him in at 2B and the GM even stated he is one of the fastest guys on the Dodgers team now... He is way faster physically than the scouts put him at and the baseball savant sprint speed I stated months ago actually backs up the Dodgers GM words...

If he’s one of the fastest guys on the team now then they’re slow ad hell.

 

[sportscoach]

If he’s one of the fastest guys on the team now then they’re slow ad hell.

He had a sprint speed of 29+ ... You cannot just randomly do that... Speed like that is something you have or you dont

 

[Gson]

The Bo Bichette extension through his arbitration years bring rise to the potential extension of some of the guys currently on the Guardians roster..

Shane Bieber: Unlikely extension candidate.. he is close enough and has performed well enough to play out his two remaining arbitration years and become a FA after the 2024 season.

Amed Rosario/Zunino: Unlikely but possible long term extension candidates.. they are scheduled to become a FA after the 2023 season.. making them trade candidates.. and will be the best SS FA and C FA in the 23/24 winter..

Naylor/Civale/Quantrill/Plesac: All four realistic extension candidates before each of them become FA's after the 2025 season.. There is time to get this done & it will be interesting to see who is approached.. and who isn't ( Plesac? )

McKenzie & Gimenez: Likely extension candidates. Both become FA's after the 2026 season and are prime candidates to score/secure life changing extensions that cover all of their ARB years and, perhaps one FA year.

There will be more to discuss (Kwan, Spongebob) pending their sophomore years and the arrival of some of the kids currently in MiLB.. This kind of vision will prove the contention window is real..

Thoughts?..

 

[sportscoach]

The Bo Bichette extension through his arbitration years bring rise to the potential extension of some of the guys currently on the Guardians roster..

Shane Bieber: Unlikely extension candidate.. he is close enough and has performed well enough to play out his two remaining arbitration years and become a FA after the 2024 season.

Amed Rosario/Zunino: Unlikely but possible long term extension candidates.. they are scheduled to become a FA after the 2023 season.. making them trade candidates.. and will be the best SS FA and C FA in the 23/24 winter..

Naylor/Civale/Quantrill/Plesac: All four realistic extension candidates before each of them become FA's after the 2025 season.. There is time to get this done & it will be interesting to see who is approached.. and who isn't ( Plesac? )

McKenzie & Gimenez: Likely extension candidates. Both become FA's after the 2026 season and are prime candidates to score/secure life changing extensions that cover all of their ARB years and, perhaps one FA year.

There will be more to discuss (Kwan, Spongebob) pending their sophomore years and the arrival of some of the kids currently in MiLB.. This kind of vision will prove the contention window is real..

Thoughts?..

Bieber for sure they will try to extend... It doesn't mean it will be close enough to merit taking it...

Gimenez and TMac are very strong extension candidates. I'll be very surprised it TMac doesn't take one.. Naylor, could be especially with his brother as well. I'd say that's a coin flip on him...

Rosario and Zunino, nope... They arent here unless they get resigned next off season. Both will hit free agency.

The SPs... I think Quan is 30-40% at best, I dont see it.. But Civale is a no this season cause of his injury filled season in 22.. Plesac isn't long for this roster with the talent coming up and his past actions...

Kwan's agent and Cleveland will talk but nothing in 22. I don't see anything more with Gonzalez...

 

[CDAV45]

The Bo Bichette extension through his arbitration years bring rise to the potential extension of some of the guys currently on the Guardians roster..

Shane Bieber: Unlikely extension candidate.. he is close enough and has performed well enough to play out his two remaining arbitration years and become a FA after the 2024 season.

Amed Rosario/Zunino: Unlikely but possible long term extension candidates.. they are scheduled to become a FA after the 2023 season.. making them trade candidates.. and will be the best SS FA and C FA in the 23/24 winter..

Naylor/Civale/Quantrill/Plesac: All four realistic extension candidates before each of them become FA's after the 2025 season.. There is time to get this done & it will be interesting to see who is approached.. and who isn't ( Plesac? )

McKenzie & Gimenez: Likely extension candidates. Both become FA's after the 2026 season and are prime candidates to score/secure life changing extensions that cover all of their ARB years and, perhaps one FA year.

There will be more to discuss (Kwan, Spongebob) pending their sophomore years and the arrival of some of the kids currently in MiLB.. This kind of vision will prove the contention window is real..

Thoughts?..

If Bieber was going to give a hometown discount and extend with the Guardians he would have done so last season or shortly after. He'll hit FA in hopes of a mega deal. Can't blame him really. Let's hope he has a healthy, productive season so that we can still get a little something for him with 1 yr remaining. I wouldn't be surprised if he were dealt at the deadline if our season doesn't go as expected and/or some of these young studs shine.

Amed might not be here for part of the 23 season or all of it if someone comes calling. Especially if the kids are pushing.

Of Bieber, Quantrill, Civale, and Plesac I view Quantrill as the most likely to take a reasonable extension. The problem with extending these guys is the incredible influx of SP coming like a freight train.

I do expect both McKenzie and Gimenez to extend or should I say that I'll be surprised if they don't.

 

[CATS44]

If I'm the GM...the premise of this thread...I see a roster that is pretty much set. The only real questions are the eighth reliever and who will be the backup catcher...and both questions have multiple answers that I'm comfortable with.

I'm very happy with the overall situation. Unless something huge falls into my lap, coming from previous conversations, its too close to spring training to shuffle things up in a major way.

So, the focus is looking at the young depth pieces that will inevitably be needed, and setting up some sort of pecking order...along with taking a look at some of the NRIs to see if maybe one of them could be lightning in a bottle, like Toussaint.

The only immediate weakness I see is rotational depth, but it is only short term. I'm happy with the rotation, but there is an obvious gap between the rotation and the next wave of SP prospects that will/may disappear by as soon as August.

Apart from the good I see in the present MLB talent pool, I'm concerned about roster management. I've spent a year separating the chaff from the wheat, but the last three decisions hurt, and there is no chaff left. There are no pitchers that I want to have to designate, and the position part of the roster is also cut to the quick.

Now, the main focus is on contract extensions...and there are a lot of candidates. Jose, Straw, and Clase were extended last spring, and I'd like to do at least two this spring, hopefully three.

My priority list looks something like this...

Gimenez...another year like 2022 may put Andres out of our price range.

TMac...as a homegrown talent and a kid truly invested in the community, I'm willing to invest in the person, as well as the pitcher.

Kwan...he is my Michael Brantley, already the epitome of what I want as a clubhouse example. As a rookie, our staff was already going to him for input.

 

[CDAV45]

Be patient, the extension offers are probably coming soon. We'll see how successful they are. I think McKenzie, Naylor and Gimenez are the 3 most likely to be extended. Quantrill might be in there as well, but he's probably less of a priority. His offer might have to wait until next year so they can see what the up and comers do. I don't think it's unrealistic at all to think there is going to be some serious turnover in the rotation over the next year or 2, maybe sooner than that.

I too don't see much in the way of needs they are looking to address from outside the organization. Is Brennan going to force Straw into a 4th OF role? Is Arias or Rocchio going to force their way into a starting SS role? Is Herrin going to hit the ground running? Those are wait and see items.

It's not really a pressing need, but if they can deal some excess pitching or MIFers for a legitimate, big RHH that can play 1B/OF after Bell is gone then they should do so. For me, and CATS might agree with me on this, any prospect not named Bibee, Williams or Espino would be on the table in that type of discussion. Again, that's not a dire need at the moment.

This team is young and exciting now, but just wait until next year and beyond. They are going to be a real powerhouse IMO. Don't mistake that statement as meaning they should hold back anything this year because they shouldn't. It's just the incredible talent and the amount of it coming.

 

[CATS44]

The Houston five year deal with Cristian Javier, along with Miami's deal with Alcantara last year, set some parameters for an extension for TMac. (Both are/were better than TMac at the time of their extensions.) At the time of their extensions, all three were about the same age.

Javier is a Super Two, which TMac is not, and that makes a difference. Alcantara's contract contains option years, which Javier's does not, and that makes a difference.

So, depending on the inclusion of option years, an extension for TMac that would buy out two years of free agency should cost somewhere in the vicinity of $60 mil.

 

[sportscoach]

The Houston five year deal with Cristian Javier, along with Miami's deal with Alcantara last year, set some parameters for an extension for TMac. (Both are/were better than TMac at the time of their extensions.) At the time of their extensions, all three were about the same age.

Javier is a Super Two, which TMac is not, and that makes a difference. Alcantara's contract contains option years, which Javier's does not, and that makes a difference.

So, depending on the inclusion of option years, an extension for TMac that would buy out two years of free agency should cost somewhere in the vicinity of $60 mil.

I figured both Gimenez and TMac will likely get about the same type of contract...

 

[CATS44]

I figured both Gimenez and TMac will likely get about the same type of contract...

Gimenez is kinda at a crossroads roads when it comes to an extension.

As it stands now, he can guarantee financial security for himself right now. But if he has another season like 2022, he moves up into the upper echelon of MLB players.


15 MLB players put up at least 6 fWAR last year. Gimenez was the youngest. Most were in their thirties.

Only four have put up at least 12 fWAR over the past two seasons. Judge, Trea Turner, JRam, and Goldschmidt. Gimenez could be looking at a long term $300 mil.

Just a comparison...

Thru his first 1122 career PAs, Lindor was worth 9.3 fWAR. ( 5.1 per 600 PA)

Thru his first 899 career PAs, Gimenez has been worth 8.1 fWAR. ( 5.3 per 600 PA )

In those spans Lindor had a 116 wRC+ to Gimenez' 119.

Which is why Gimenez is my first priority for an extension.

 

[sportscoach]

Marlins, Athletics Swap JJ Bleday For AJ Puk

The Athletics are acquiring JJ Bleday from the Marlins in a trade, according to the Athletic's Ken Rosenthal. Left-hander A.J. …

www.mlbtraderumors.com

You think we could have/should have beaten the offer for Puk? Could have beaten it? yes, did we want to? No!

Looking it at it sincerely, probably not since we don't have an OF with a similar level to Bleday... Just better or way worse on paper... I would have liked to get Puk though...

 

[Benway]

Bleedy for Puke? Hard to swallow.