Shouldn't put myself in the middle of this argument but I was going to point out Morgan's sub-100 t/sOPS+ the other day in his last 2 months. He seemed to be settling down into a groove and as you pointed out some numbers looked good in comparison to other pitchers.
Yet, I try to hold my judgement for a full-year plus some stats as pitchers and hitters adapt to each other. I can also point out the Tomlin had a 1.247 WHIP in year 1 and 1.077 in year 2. He also had a SO/K in year 1 of 2.26 compared to 3.68 for Morgan but was up to 4.23 SO/K in year 2. At that rate, he was on track to become an ACE (sarcasm) but sometimes, the eyes are more reliable than stats (this coming from someone who liked stats in school). As the saying goes, figures lie and liars figure.
It will be interesting to see what he does but for me, I still see him as a #4/#5 starter for a middle of road team which isn't a slight (as he made the show). I wouldn't normally have a problem with him being our #5 like Tomlin was as he can put up decent numbers. In Aug and Sept (taking out a disastrous May start), BAA .238 and ERA around 4.2 (but K/W ratio dipped to 2.8). And the competition was not just bottom feeders who brought up scrubs after trade deadline to pad his numbers (Tor, Detx2, Oak, Min, Tex x2, CHWS, NYY, BOSx2, Mil)
However, for our team, he is just going to be the bottom of rotation starter who is going to ultimately get bumped as the new shinny prospect is ready for an extended look see. Unless he turns into a Maddox or Glavin, he is not going to survive the desire to find next gem when we may have our next TOR starter waiting for some time to shine. Can he stay in our rotation and become more of a placeholder without a shiny pedigree? Bieber found a way (with some extra mph on FB) ... so anything can happen. But, with a 90.5 mph average on his 4-seamer last year and being 26 in May, he needs to focus on his pinpoint control and deception to survive. However, in 2023/24 when we want someone with a little extra umph to come in from the bullpen in playoffs (as we go with just 3/4 starters in playoffs like I think Clevinger did in 2016 for us), Morgan is not that guy.
Are we going to really hold back the following prospects
2022 - This year, I see him as the main #6 but Morris may get a few starts or relief appearances and we have Myers
2023 - Battenfield, Pilkington and Allen Jr
2024 - Espino, Curry, Gaddis, Burns, Cantillo, Hankins
2025 - Wolf, Torres, Williams, Mace, Nikhazy
That's 16 relatively high prospects (even leaving out Vargas - bullpen future and Hickman (Morgan lite). 8 will flame out or be injured ... few more may not beat out Morgan ... But, will we be willing to have a 4+ ERA, soft tossing righty when we have a few high pedigree, mid-high 90 fastballers. As I said, a few/many of our pitchers will be moved to the pen, after they flame out as starters. Yet, you always give them a look because their potential upside is worth a few bad starts to make sure. And, this also assumes that we don't draft or trade for another pitcher when we deal someone like Rosario at a trade deadline.
I feel sorry for him but look how many pitchers bit the dust this 40 man time around (Mejia, Garza - resigned, Moss, ....). Next time, we have to add Battenfield, Hankins, Torres and Miko/Ramirez. I can see Myers, Morgan, Allen Sr and Hentges on the block to be cut for the next shinny prospect. Who knows by July, he can gets us the next Straw in a deal. This is his year to show something, I just wouldn't bet on him being here in 2 years.