Thoughts on trading Jose Ramirez

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AZ_

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Taking a look at the places in the Indians minor league system.. and it's clear what is missing.. Upside OF'er at all levels and catching.. There are several teams that have excesses in these areas...

example: SF Giants: They're not contending this or next year.. maybe not the year after that.. but they have a pair of what I'll refer as "catching talent": Joey Bart and Patrick Bailey (I think his first name is patrick).. Bailey is the Ohio State kid.. probably and Indians fan growing up.. a switch hitter with plenty of present and more future power..etc.. but what really shines with him.. is his ability to catch.. block balls.. excellent feet and strong accurate arm.. Everything the CLEFO covets in catching talent.. He has a bonus in that he's a 2020 draftee.. so he needs no 40 man roster protection for four plus years.. not that it's going to take that long before he's ML ready..

This is a target the Indians should be able to acquire knowing the SF Giants could use two or three 2B/3B upside prospects..

The Jays are in the same spot w/r to catching talent.. there are two other teams with catching talent excess..

A deal "like" this could be/should be made.. Additionally, a catcher already at the ML level should also be looked at.. there are about sixteen of those..

Thoughts?>.

Patrick Bailey is from NC, went to NC State.


You may be thinking of Dillon Dingler, but tbh I don't really know. :chuckle:
 

Criznit

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Why would anyone consider trading George Valera, our best outfield prospect, when our outfield is such an organizational weakness? That one makes no sense to me.
Valera is a top prospect but certainly not untouchable. A major upgrade to our ML OF will require a quality prospect or 2 or 3. Valera fits that bill, IMO.
 

petes999

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A couple things to think about ...
1) "We have a chance this year" ... and so do the Rockies. It's kind of like saying Mavs or Cavs have a chance to win against Lakers. The average sports book is 1:38 this year for us to win WS, 1:30 last year (average of just being in MLB) and 1:10 in 2019.

2019 was year to go all in and we tried to split the Trevor trade in MLB guys (Puig and Reyes) and prospects (Allen, Moss, Nova) -- similar to Clev trade MLB guys (Naylor, Quant, Hedges) and prospects (Cantillo, Arias and Miller). This is spreading out your bets between now and future. For a team with limited resources, in my mind, they got to either go all in or pull back resources for later. Indians try to split the difference to stay competitive but not really have a chance to compete in October.

2) "Rather be winning than losing" -- "just making playoffs is good enough". Imagine asking the Cubs (if they lost Game 7 to us instead) if it would have been good enough to get to game 7 and lose while going onto a 110 year WS drought this year. Ask a Bills fan about 4 SB appearances in a row and "wide right" if that was good enough. We are still living in Cavs glory. Yet, think about if Cavs lost that last game to GS, how would be feel about being the proverbial "Bridesmaid"/ 2nd Best in Cleveland. When will this 70+ year on-going drought start dragging down Indians fans (if Browns don't win -- it will be soon).

3) "But we were 1 game from having 2nd best record in AL last year" -- partially due to Central sucking. The strength of the central is the reason why Cards and WSox only won 1 WC game and Twins and Indians won 0 WC games last year (2 out of 10 games - odds should have been that 2 teams moved forward if evenly competitive). Teams that won were all from East and West because they are better.

4) "We just need one more good hitter to protect Jose" -- I like our top 3 in Cesar, Jose and Eddie. Yet, after than it becomes slightly above average AAAA roster at best -- in Reyes (a 1-2 WAR DH -- not Cruz or Stanton type), Naylor (hope he gets his Top 100 prospect luster back), Perez (defense only), Mercado (don't get me too down or I will be sent down again), Bradley/ Bauers/ Johnson, Rosario/ Gimenez at SS. You need 3 of them to break out to even come close to a Twins/Sox/Yankees or Dodgers line-up. And, unfortunately, most teams are also have 2-3 pitchers at their FOR that can compete with ours (if not be better like Dodgers/Padres). We can't even say that our staff is top-5 unlike 2019/20.

5) "We have 2 of the best pitchers/hitters in the league." Unfortunately, this isn't the NBA where LeBron/Kyrie or LeBron/Davis can carry you deep in playoffs not matter the supporting cast.

You can point to Hershiser in 1988 (NLCS - Game 1, Game 3, save in Game 4 and Game 7 ... WS Game 2 & 5) -- carried the weak offense of Dodgers. Yet, when MLB added Central and 3rd series plus WC (vs old 2 series to win it all), the odds of the underdog (David beating 3 Goliaths) went down and days where a pitcher can go on all 3 days rest is long gone. Longer and more series - the more odds start to favor the goliaths vs upsets. Easier to get lucky in 2-4 games to turn 2 playoff series around than 3-6 games needed over 3 playoff series (like flipping a coin and expecting a heads to always appear - more you play the less the unusual happens).

6) "You are going to waste your pitching" --But, If you don't have hitting, you are going to waste your pitching anyways. For me, just appearing in a 1 game WC isn't good enough. For some it is and thus you would want to hold tight and hope that Bieber can pitch a Orel-type 54 innings of shutout ball (3-series for 6-games/9 innings) and hope for Ramirez HR in each game. If it is good enough for you, then we just need to agree to disagree.

Indians are basically already wasting their pitching due to the financial cuts we made (and the 1/2 in - MLB players and 1/2 out - prospects trades). If you think that we can be a better team due to

- Trading Lindor and Cookie for A Rosario and Gimenez (and getting 2 prospects back) -- and even with Rosario and Gimenez, we are only going to see 1 play at SS at a time. A Rosario isn't just going to play SS in April/May then say ... I can play CF with no practice time in ST. We lost immediate value (help) here.

- Switching out Santana (yes he and Lindor had an off year) with E Rosario (isn't an major improvement). There is a reason Santana commanded 2 for $17.5 million vs Rosario 1 for $8 million. Best you can call this is a draw or slight upgrade as we needed an OF (as Naylor, Bradley and Bauers are better at 1st).

- You can say that Clase will be (maybe) better than Hand - but other teams have rookies or 2nd year players coming up too. I just don't see a major upgrade to this team over last year (unlike Sox/Toronto/Padres and others have had). With our better young hitters still 1 to 2 years away, we didn't fill the holes we had -- bottom part of line up (just traded one for another)

7) "Trading Jose will give us too many prospects w Rule 5" -- Issue isn't having too many prospects, the issue is when you trade a damage Clevinger, nut-case Bauer, older Cookie or 1-year of Lindor, this approach doesn't give you enough 50+ FV top-line prospects (the next Lindor, Tatis, ...) but gives you guys with some holes (Arias - contact issues, L Allen - BOR upside , Moss - reliever, Quant - maybe a good MOR starter but still risks,..). And as people say, most prospects won't work out. In todays time, when very few top prospects like Patino and his 60 FV (currently 13th on FanGraph board) are traded anymore, you need to capitalize on the leverage you do have like TB did with Snell (w 2-3 years on contract like Ramirez). Yes, we have a rule-5 roster crunch but if we trade Ramirez this year or next, we should land a 55 FV in Waters and a 45+/50 talent in Langeliers/Contreras at a minimum (plus more) -- if not a Pache or Anderson (top 20) type if done this year. I would gladly risk some 40 FV players in Tena, Fermin, Burgos or cut 35 FV players in Clement, Moss, Broom, Scott because as with college football not all 5 stars hit and some 3-stars will amaze but the more 4/5-stars you have the better odds you have that you will field a good team in the future.

For me, just buying a lottery ticket (long-shot odds) each year isn't good enough (yet many people do like this and thus play it each week). If we have to bite the bullet and have $60-$70 million payroll for next 2 years before going back up to $100 million range, I just don't like our chances of just having Bieber and Ramirez. If we had all of our Valera, Bracho, Jones, other Naylor and Miller prospects ETAs in 2021, that is one thing to bet on and keep Ramirez.

So, if 2 of Miller, Johnson, A Rosario or Jones shows enough in ST to handle OF/CF with 3-4 WAR potential and push Naylor to 1st, great -- we got our lineup fixed over the AAAA players of Mercado, Zimmer, Bradley, etc. Yet, Jones is starting at 3B in ST, Rosario at SS, and we are still pulling from the scrap heap of deferred players because we have little faith in Johnson/Mercado locking down their positions. I am just not confident enough.

So after June of this year, we need to see if value we have in Ramirez is better to make our fans happy in 2021 by keeping him or getting more value in 2022/23 with young players or prospects. Or, we just keep wishing that we get the next Arozarena or Yaz breakout (even though Baltimore gave up on Yaz and STL had surplus OF - gave them their rejects even though they got a great pitching prospects). However, last time we did that, we struck out in Bauers for Diaz & Sulser and only 1-3 of these trades of trades happen each year. It's hard to line up team needs especially as teams favor their prospects (that they know) over other that they just scout.
 

Alabuckeye

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You may have already determined Mercado to be a AAAA player, but I haven't. Signing the guy yesterday.....who won't be in the mix in CF.....is not an indictment on Mercado.

So, Carlos at 2/19 is more valuable than Eddie at 1/8 because Eddie only got 1/8? They are in slightly different stages of career, I suspect Eddie was more interested in a short deal to make himself available when theoretically there is more money flowing(i.e. not in the middle of a pandemic). Carlos at 37? took the best deal he could get. Good for him too, because I really like him.
 
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hockeyjohn

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Valera is a top prospect but certainly not untouchable. A major upgrade to our ML OF will require a quality prospect or 2 or 3. Valera fits that bill, IMO.
We have plenty of middle infield and pitching prospects that are quality prospects where the Indians have plenty of depth. In my opinion, Valera should not be moved. Why weaken an already weak area.
 

Gson

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Patrick Bailey is from NC, went to NC State.


You may be thinking of Dillon Dingler, but tbh I don't really know. :chuckle:
It's patrick bailey.. in the SF Giants system..
 

AZ_

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It's patrick bailey.. in the SF Giants system..

Right, but he's not from Ohio State, nor from Ohio.

That being said, I do like him as a prospect.
 
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Gson

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Valera is a top prospect but certainly not untouchable. A major upgrade to our ML OF will require a quality prospect or 2 or 3. Valera fits that bill, IMO.
based solely on the position he plays.. the Indians should avoid including Valera as part of a deal for anyone... including an over pay in his stead.. I've seen your postings for years and know that you agree with this.. but there is always that time when someone decides that they must have...
 

Gson

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Right, but he's not from Ohio State, nor from Ohio.
yes..xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx I know of..
 

Criznit

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based solely on the position he plays.. the Indians should avoid including Valera as part of a deal for anyone... including an over pay in his stead.. I've seen your postings for years and know that you agree with this.. but there is always that time when someone decides that they must have...
All and all I do. Huge year for him IMO. He has missed a lot of time between injury/covid and should start in High-A. A slow start/pedestrian season could really dim his star. I also think a trade that involves any of our top prospects will target an OF or possibly a 3B type so that could potentially mitigate some of the perceived "loss".

Lets all hope he comes out swinging and runs 2-3 levels up in 2021. That should lock him in.
 

WhoAzcue

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"Rather be winning than losing" -- "just making playoffs is good enough".
Your incredibly well articulated and lengthy post can be distilled down into this divide between fans. On one side are those who spit on that sort of view; on the other side are those who wholeheartedly embrace that view. Thank you for taking the time to express yours, because we need to have a clear understanding of this perspective.

I don't share any of it.

Over the last thirty years the Cleveland Indians could have easily won six World Series (at least) and won none. I'm not going to cry about that, or indict whatever owners or front office personnel did to "prevent" those championships. The truth is, between the lines we had what it took to win it all, and...either the bouncing ball didn't bounce in our direction, or the players didn't perform when it was all within their grasp.

The idea that through some incredible force of human resolve, we could have MADE IT HAPPEN somehow, GUARANTEED it would happen, is human folly or hubris of the highest order. The Dodgers through sheer force of resources have been trying for 30 years and finally got lucky this year. Yes, lucky. They could have easily been dismissed by the Braves..and even by the plucky Rays.

The Braves of the 90s's began a string of 14 division titles in 15 years, and in many of those years, MANY of them, they were the best team in the game. They only won once. Fans who disparage what the Indians have done look at the Braves as failures, which makes us worse I guess, since we were the only team they didn't fail against.

I guess if you believe that "middling winning" (whatever that is) is worthless, you must regard the Marlins as a highly successful franchise, what with their two Worlds Championships and scores of last place finishes. A franchise to be proud of, not like the crummy seventh best all-time in the major leagues, 3rd best only behind big market NYY and BOS in AL history.

I don't really know where the fan self-entitlement comes from, or the idea that man controls everything through sheer force of will, but that's not the way baseball works. If ever there's a team sport that is humbling, it's baseball. I look back on the last 30 years and the present circumstances and think, "Damn, this has been fun. Let's go!" You look back at the last 30 years and where stand today and you think, "Damn, how frustrating. And it's going to be more of the same with this approach to mediocrity."

Maybe it's not quite the 'ol half glass full, half glass empty thing, but man, it sure sounds like it. Go ahead, fit me with those homer rose-colored shades and toss me that Dolan burner, I'm ready for 2021 because we're in it, baby! And nothing is guaranteed, just the way I like it. I don't need to be prohibitive favorites to enjoy my baseball. David against Goliath was always my favorite story anyway.
 

hockeyjohn

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Your incredibly well articulated and lengthy post can be distilled down into this divide between fans. On one side are those who spit on that sort of view; on the other side are those who wholeheartedly embrace that view. Thank you for taking the time to express yours, because we need to have a clear understanding of this perspective.

I don't share any of it.

Over the last thirty years the Cleveland Indians could have easily won six World Series (at least) and won none. I'm not going to cry about that, or indict whatever owners or front office personnel did to "prevent" those championships. The truth is, between the lines we had what it took to win it all, and...either the bouncing ball didn't bounce in our direction, or the players didn't perform when it was all within their grasp.

The idea that through some incredible force of human resolve, we could have MADE IT HAPPEN somehow, GUARANTEED it would happen, is human folly or hubris of the highest order. The Dodgers through sheer force of resources have been trying for 30 years and finally got lucky this year. Yes, lucky. They could have easily been dismissed by the Braves..and even by the plucky Rays.

The Braves of the 90s's began a string of 14 division titles in 15 years, and in many of those years, MANY of them, they were the best team in the game. They only won once. Fans who disparage what the Indians have done look at the Braves as failures, which makes us worse I guess, since we were the only team they didn't fail against.

I guess if you believe that "middling winning" (whatever that is) is worthless, you must regard the Marlins as a highly successful franchise, what with their two Worlds Championships and scores of last place finishes. A franchise to be proud of, not like the crummy seventh best all-time in the major leagues, 3rd best only behind big market NYY and BOS in AL history.

I don't really know where the fan self-entitlement comes from, or the idea that man controls everything through sheer force of will, but that's not the way baseball works. If ever there's a team sport that is humbling, it's baseball. I look back on the last 30 years and the present circumstances and think, "Damn, this has been fun. Let's go!" You look back at the last 30 years and where stand today and you think, "Damn, how frustrating. And it's going to be more of the same with this approach to mediocrity."

Maybe it's not quite the 'ol half glass full, half glass empty thing, but man, it sure sounds like it. Go ahead, fit me with those homer rose-colored shades and toss me that Dolan burner, I'm ready for 2021 because we're in it, baby! And nothing is guaranteed, just the way I like it. I don't need to be prohibitive favorites to enjoy my baseball. David against Goliath was always my favorite story anyway.
 

hockeyjohn

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Very well said, WhoAzcue! I agree with you 100% I have followed the Indians since 1965 when I was 7 years old. For almost 30 years, (1965-1993) the Indians were basically a minor league team trading all of our good players for can't miss prospects (Most of them missed). Since 1994, the Indians have been more competitive making baseball much more enjoyable. With the way MLB is operated, small market teams like the Indians have a much narrow window to meet to have a chance to win. Chris Antonetti has done a marvelous job keeping that window open each year despite the small market challenges. The covid-19 pandemic makes this year's window even more challenging, but that window is there. WhoAzcue is correct that anything can happen once the playoffs are made. 2016 was a joy as I had little expectations with our starting pitching rotation filled with injuries. 2017 was a huge disappointment as we underperformed in the playoffs that year. The point is to get to the playoffs and see what happens. Nothing is a guarantee is sports. Every season is a new adventure filled with many ups and downs. Teams will surprise, while others disappoint. Like every team, we will need players to step up to be successful.
 

CDAV45

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I don't really care that they haven't won a WS in my lifetime and that they lost the 3 chances they've had. I'm a commitment and effort lover. What I don't like is the "just get to the playoffs" mantra because it's BS. It's a means to an excuse for not winning. It's somewhere between a retool/rebuild and putting the best possible team on the field. There is always the outside chance that all the stars align and regardless of how good a roster is, a little luck will be needed. Having said that, the Indians haven't been failing because of bad luck. They're just not as good as the competition come playoff time and they haven't been as good as the Twins the last 2 yrs.

I believe with all my heart that this team is close, but they shouldn't be done if they intend to be competitive instead of a pleasant surprise. They have unknowns in CF, RF, and 1B and our catchers can't hit for shit. That's damn near half the line up.

What's frustrating to me is that I'm told the value of prospects is exponentially high right now and that you're not going to get an organization's top prospects for a player with little control or an expensive contract. It doesn't matter how good they are. So here we sit with a team that is close to being very well rounded and really competitive that has a farm system that is absolutely stocked. So much so that many here are worried about a roster crunch in 22.

Commit to it Goddammit. You did it in 2016 when you traded Frazier and others for a BP arm. That worked out pretty good I would say.
 

The Human Q-Tip

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Your incredibly well articulated and lengthy post can be distilled down into this divide between fans. On one side are those who spit on that sort of view; on the other side are those who wholeheartedly embrace that view. Thank you for taking the time to express yours, because we need to have a clear understanding of this perspective.

I don't share any of it.

Over the last thirty years the Cleveland Indians could have easily won six World Series (at least) and won none. I'm not going to cry about that, or indict whatever owners or front office personnel did to "prevent" those championships. The truth is, between the lines we had what it took to win it all, and...either the bouncing ball didn't bounce in our direction, or the players didn't perform when it was all within their grasp.

The idea that through some incredible force of human resolve, we could have MADE IT HAPPEN somehow, GUARANTEED it would happen, is human folly or hubris of the highest order. The Dodgers through sheer force of resources have been trying for 30 years and finally got lucky this year. Yes, lucky. They could have easily been dismissed by the Braves..and even by the plucky Rays.

The Braves of the 90s's began a string of 14 division titles in 15 years, and in many of those years, MANY of them, they were the best team in the game. They only won once. Fans who disparage what the Indians have done look at the Braves as failures, which makes us worse I guess, since we were the only team they didn't fail against.

I guess if you believe that "middling winning" (whatever that is) is worthless, you must regard the Marlins as a highly successful franchise, what with their two Worlds Championships and scores of last place finishes. A franchise to be proud of, not like the crummy seventh best all-time in the major leagues, 3rd best only behind big market NYY and BOS in AL history.

I don't really know where the fan self-entitlement comes from, or the idea that man controls everything through sheer force of will, but that's not the way baseball works. If ever there's a team sport that is humbling, it's baseball. I look back on the last 30 years and the present circumstances and think, "Damn, this has been fun. Let's go!" You look back at the last 30 years and where stand today and you think, "Damn, how frustrating. And it's going to be more of the same with this approach to mediocrity."

Maybe it's not quite the 'ol half glass full, half glass empty thing, but man, it sure sounds like it. Go ahead, fit me with those homer rose-colored shades and toss me that Dolan burner, I'm ready for 2021 because we're in it, baby! And nothing is guaranteed, just the way I like it. I don't need to be prohibitive favorites to enjoy my baseball. David against Goliath was always my favorite story anyway.

Holy crap is that a good post.

At least for those of us who agree with you.

:chuckle:
 

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